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We’re just in the second month of Oscar predictions for next year and Amy Adams is finally winning, right? As much as people probably want to see that happen, and as much as many people feel she’s deserved wins before, her path may not be so simple. Adams got the first of her FIVE nominations in Supporting Actress for Junebug in 2006, her big breakthrough and the only nomination for that film. She followed that up with three more supporting nominations, losing each time. She finally graduated to lead with her first Best Actress nomination in 2014 for American Hustle (a film that went 0-10 at the Oscars). Then came Arrival, a film that earned 8 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. But Adams, who had earned Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA nominations for the role was shockingly snubbed. All of that creates the kind of narrative that works really well with the Academy and her turn in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic is, by all accounts, a win-worthy performance. And maybe, the Academy likes Adams more in supporting than they do in lead at this point.
For all of that though, I think two-time Emmy winner Regina King will give Adams a run for her money in If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s a rich character and King was unquestionably the right choice for it. The Academy isn’t shy about giving TV stars Oscars, we just saw it happen in this very category. Adams will 100% play the campaign game to the very end and if King can go toe-to-toe with her then we’ll have a great race. Here’s the catch – both films are from Annapurna. Will the burgeoning indie studio choose between the two or give them equal campaigns? It’s an impossible call at this stage but one that will be very interesting to watch play out.
This month, the chart doesn’t change one bit. Same names and placements as last month. It’s weird, but I could see this category panning out exactly like this. Realistically that won’t happen (nor would I be so bold as to claim five locks in April). Looking into the Other Contenders we can dig into Tatiana Maslany in Destroyer, Cynthia Erivo in Widows, Salma Hayek in The Hummingbird Project (if she’s not lead), Carol Kane in The Sisters Brothers, and maybe even Tilda Swinton in Luca Guadagnino’s Suspiria remake.
Plus, I know I shouldn’t have to say it but, don’t count out Meryl Streep (evergreen comment). Her role in Mary Poppins Returns is most likely of a cameo level as it was in Suffragette but if it’s any more than that, look out.
Here are my predictions for Best Supporting Actress as of April 18, 2018.
| 1. Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney biopic |
| 2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk |
| 3. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots |
| 4. Claire Foy – First Man |
| 5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased |
| 6. Sissy Spacek – Old Man and the Gun |
| 7. Olivia Colman – The Favourite |
| 8. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner |
| 9. Laura Dern – JT Leroy |
| 10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians |
| OTHER CONTENDERS |
| Jennifer Aniston – Dumplin’ |
| Annette Bening – Georgetown |
| Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody |
| Linda Cardellini – Green Book |
| Zoe Chao – Where’d You Go, Bernadette |
| Cynthia Erivo – Widows |
| Adèle Exarchopoulos – The White Crow |
| Eiza González – The Women of Marwen |
| Denise Gough – Colette |
| Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project |
| Lena Headey – Fighting with My Family |
| Carol Kane – The Sisters Brothers |
| Diane Kruger – The Women of Marwen |
| Lisa Lu – Crazy Rich Asians |
| Teresa Mahoney – Peterloo |
| Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer |
| Rachel McAdams – Disobedience |
| Janelle Monáe – The Women of Marwen |
| Chloë Grace Moretz – Suspiria |
| Ruth Negga – Ad Astra |
| Alison Pill – Untitled Dick Cheney biopic |
| Charlotte Rampling – The Little Stranger |
| Elena Sofia Ricci – Loro |
| Emily Rios – If Beale Street Could Talk |
| Andrea Riseborough – Burden |
| Julia Roberts – Ben is Back |
| Saoirse Ronan – The Seagull |
| Amy Ryan – Beautiful Boy |
| Léa Seydoux – Kursk |
| Anna Deavere Smith – Can You Ever Forgive Me? |
| Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns |
| Tilda Swinton – Suspiria |
| Holland Taylor – Gloria |
| Marina de Tavira – Roma |
| Katherine Waterston – Mid 90s |
| Jacki Weaver – Widows |
| Kristen Wiig – Where’d You Go, Bernadette |
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (April)
2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (April)
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