2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (August)
Regina King rebounds; Marina de Tavira enters the top 10
It’s a locked in top 4 for now, even with the Venice and Toronto film festival announcements: Amy Adams (Backseat), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Emma Stone (The Favourite), and Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased).
Of those, only The Favourite has been announced for a festival run; world premiering at Venice. Backseat is expected to wait until AFI Fest to premiere before its mid-December release. Boy Erased has been absent so far but is expected at Telluride and possibly in the final announcements for Toronto before the full schedule for TIFF is released next week.
Regina King bounces back with If Beale Street Could Talk after its TIFF world premiere announcement and the reveal of the film’s first trailer. The two-time Emmy winning actress is well-loved in the industry and she has a compelling role in Beale Street that could be her ticket.
This drops Margot Robbie out of the top 5 for the first time this season. As with Boy Erased, Focus Features has been holding off on festival announcements for some of its top awards contenders and even though I’m inclined to think Mary Queen of Scots will show up somewhere significant, it’s enough to bump Robbie down a bit until that happens.
In the lower half of the top 10, Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner) falls down to the Next Up section and gives a boost to three contenders in the process: Cynthia Erivo in Bad Times at the El Royale, Rachel Weisz in The Favourite and the big news this month, Marina de Tavira in ROMA. With ROMA hitting all four major fall fests (Venice, Toronto, NYFF and Telluride), it’s time to take de Tavira (who’s reportedly the standout) seriously. Netflix is going to campaign the hell out of Alfonso Cuarón’s film and she could easily be swept up in the awards frenzy.
With Destroyer being announced for Toronto but world premiering at Telluride (it’s a ‘Canadian Premiere’ at TIFF) I’m going to keep an eye on Tatiana Maslany. She’s still in the Next Up section but the Emmy-winner could find herself in the top 10 on next month’s chart.
Same goes for Sissy Spacek. Although The Old Man & the Gun is being positioned as a final acting nomination for Robert Redford (who officially declared his retirement this month) Spacek, an Oscar winner and 6-time nominee could find herself with a 7th after the film premieres at Telluride.
One thing that is likely to change next month is we might have a clearer idea of category placement for the actresses from The Favourite. At the moment I have them on the chart, in the top 10, of both supporting and lead actress. It’s the only way right now. But, once lines are drawn and Fox Searchlight decides where to push them, at least one name from this list will drop and open the door for someone waiting for a top 5 or top 10 berth.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actress for August 13th, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut
1. Amy Adams – Backseat (Annapurna)
2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
5. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
6. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
7. Claire Foy – First Man (Universal)
8. Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
9. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
10. Marina de Tavira – ROMA (Netflix)
Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner (Sony)
Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Ruth Negga – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Sissy Spacek – The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)
Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns (Walt Disney)
Jennifer Aniston – Dumplin’
Kathy Bates – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Annette Bening – Georgetown
Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody (20th Century Fox)
Linda Cardellini – Green Book (Universal)
Toni Collette – Velvet Buzzsaw (Netflix)
Blythe Danner – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Laura Dern – JT Leroy
Cynthia Erivo – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Denise Gough – Colette (Bleecker Street0
Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project
Lena Headey – Fighting with My Family (MGM)
Teresa Mahoney – Peterloo (Amazon)
Leslie Mann – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
Rachel McAdams – Disobedience (Bleecker Street)
Janelle Monáe – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
Sarah Paulson – Bird Box (Netflix)
Alison Pill – Backseat (Annapurna)
Julia Roberts – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Rene Russo – Velvet Buzzsaw (Netflix)
Amy Ryan – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
Anna Deavere Smith – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria (Amazon)
Katherine Waterston – Mid 90s (A24)
Jacki Weaver – Bird Box (Netflix)
Jacki Weaver – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Merritt Wever – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)