2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)

When the Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations last week, there was a shockwave sent out with them. In Female Actor in a Supporting Role the nominees were Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite). The overwhelming critics’ favorite, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), was snubbed.

After winning well over a dozen (at the time) awards for her performance, the SAG nom comm denied her here, putting her Oscar hopes in jeopardy. Category switches like Jennifer Connelly aside, only one person has ever won the Supporting Actress Oscar without a SAG nomination first – Marcia Gay Harden for 2000’s Pollock. King has Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations but she might struggle for a BAFTA mention. Her path to an Oscar win becomes sketchy in this era without wins at all three to overcome that SAG snub. That being said, I’m sticking with King for the win. It all depends on how the televised awards shake out but I think she’ll have the momentum.

That snub was good news for Amy Adams. After months of shrouded secrecy around Vice, the film was a hit with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, earning the most nominations of any film (6). Her overdue narrative was already in place but is it enough for such a generic supporting wife role in such a divisive film? Remember, the Academy is the same group that snubbed her for Arrival after she earned GG+SAG+BFCA+BAFTA noms. She’s going to hit all of those again but the Academy might not be so keen on that overdue narrative as those outside are.

Here’s a crazy thought; Rachel Weisz beat Amy Adams for the Supporting Actress Oscar in 2006, on their first nominations. Since then, Adams has been nominated four more times; Weisz has yet to earn another. Can you imagine how much it would sting for Weisz to finally return to the Oscar circle only to once again snatch victory from Adams?

Even with those two surprise SAG noms for Blunt and Robbie, I think this category will see a shakeup in the form of newcomer Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie. Granted, a SAG nomination first would have made more sense but SAG has outliers every year and I feel like there’s a groundswell for Leave No Trace that could find McKenzie swept up in.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for December 20, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA, GG, Spirit)
2. Amy Adams – Vice (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Emma Stone – The Favourite (BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace (Spirit)

6. Claire Foy – First Man (BFCA, GG)
7. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (BFCA)
8. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (SAG)
9. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place (SAG)
10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians

OTHER CONTENDERS

Elizabeth Debicki – Widows
Marina de Tavira – ROMA

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