Regina King is the new queen of the Supporting Actress Oscar race as If Beale Street Could Talk had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival earlier this month for a performance met with raves reviews, many calling her the standout. The film was also the first runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF.
She knocks down Amy Adams for the first time since my Oscar charts started way back in March. Adams had been on top for Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic (which has yet to settle on a name but for now is going by Vice) but Annapurna (who is also putting out Beale Street) has been holding back on giving us anything to work with. No production stills, no festival appearances, no trailer. I’ve held onto Adams at the top spot as long as possible so until we have something concrete she relinquishes her throne.
Speaking of thrones, Olivia Colman grabbed scene-stealing raves for The Favourite at its appearances at Venice and Telluride and she holds tight at #2. There are still rumors of what category she (and co-stars Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz) will be placed in – many are saying she’ll be the lead push for the film – but if she’s put in supporting (which is where I’m suspecting she’ll end up) she could be a huge threat to win. Stone maintains her top 5 standing here but we’ll have to wait and see, again, where she ends up being pushed.
Nicole Kidman earned the lion’s share of good reviews for Boy Erased at its Telluride and Toronto debuts and holds onto her top 5 status as well. She also has Destroyer as a Best Actress push (which now seems a bit shakier than before) and that range will give her an extra edge with voters.
Rises in the lower tier of the top 10 include Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians) and Marina de Tavira (ROMA, the TIFF People’s Choice second runner-up) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) too finds a boost.
The Toronto International Film Festival’s People Choice Award winner, Green Book, gives rise to Linda Cardellini, who makes her chart debut in the Next Up section. It’s a threadbare role but if Green Book goes the distance she could easily come along for the ride so keep an eye on her.
Elizabeth Debicki makes a strong debut for Widows after its world premiere at TIFF, with the strongest supporting female role in the film. This could be a breakthrough for her.
Natalie Portman makes a soft debut for Vox Lux, which premiered at Venice and was bought by Neon at Toronto. It’s a crazy, fantastic performance but might be too far out for Academy voters (even though they gave her a Best Actress win for Black Swan).
Falling this month are Cynthia Erivo for Bad Times at the El Royale but I’m not dismissing her. Even though her role in Widows is small it will benefit her here (or the other way around, but then there’s Debicki to challenge her there).
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) continues to slide as her film is simply a non-player for the fall festivals and seems to have disappeared of everyone’s radar, including Focus Features.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actress for September 17th, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut
1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Amy Adams – Vice (Annapurna)
4. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
6. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
7. Claire Foy – First Man (Universal)
8. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
9. Marina de Tavira – ROMA (Netflix)
10. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
Linda Cardellini – Green Book (Universal)
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Sissy Spacek – The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria (Amazon)
Kathy Bates – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody (20th Century Fox)
Blythe Danner – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Cynthia Erivo – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner (Sony)
Leslie Mann – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Rachel McAdams – Disobedience (Bleecker Street)
Thomasin Mckenzie – Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
Janelle Monáe – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
Ruth Negga – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Sarah Paulson – Bird Box (Netflix)
Alison Pill – Vice (Annapurna)
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux (Neon)
Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns (Walt Disney)
Maura Tierney – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
Jacki Weaver – Bird Box (Netflix)
Merritt Wever – Welcome to Marwen (Universal)