Frontrunners are gonna frontrun at the BAFTAs Here’s what I think will win and why
The 73rd British Academy Film Awards are this weekend, February 2nd, and they’re the last big stop on the precursor train on the way to the Oscars at the Dolby Theatre. The ceremony is right at the end of Academy Awards voting, which began on January 30th and ends on February 4th. Will their choices have an impact on late voters?
BAFTA has had a rough time as potential precursor/predictor of Oscar’s Best Picture since the expanded lineup and preferential ballot the Academy began in 2009. On top of that, BAFTA made its own voting changes in 2012 that more closely mirrored the Oscars: Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Editing, Make-Up & Hair, Original Music, Production Design, Sound, and Special Visual Effects branches vote on nominees, the body at large on the winners. The first five years lined up but the last five winners of BAFTA’s Best Film were all the (perceived) runners-up at the Oscars. Roma v Green Book, Three Billboards v The Shape of Water, La La Land v Moonlight and so on. Will that change this year? 1917 and Parasite are our two frontrunners, with the Sam Mendes WWI film in the lead with the Golden Globe, PGA and DGA in its pocket. Are you going to go against the most British movie of the year because I surely won’t.
I don’t expect any surprises in the acting categories or hints of a changing tide, like Olivia Colman’s win foreshadowing her Oscar win over Glenn Close last year. This is going to be a 2017 year where all four acting winners won CCA, Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and then the Oscar. The real races are going to be similar to what the tough Oscar races look like, especially both screenplay categories.
Original Screenplay should be a fight between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite and Adapted Screenplay most likely be either Jojo Rabbit or Little Women. The two went head to head at USC where Little Women prevailed. Neither were Globe nominated but they’ll do battle at the Writers Guild awards on February 1. They will also be the top head to head contenders in Costume Design (where Jojo won the CDG award and Little Women wasn’t nominated) both here and at the Oscars and it should be a bit of a nail-biter.
Original Score should also prove to be competitive between Hildur Guðnadóttir for Joker and Thomas Newman for 1917. Guðnadóttir has the upper hand going with the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and several music industry awards (on top of her awards for scoring HBO’s Chernobyl), as well as repping the most-nominated film.
Editing should pretty easily go to Ford v Ferrari (known as Le Mans ’66 across the pond) as BAFTA has shown an undying affinity for racing movies in this category (Senna, Rush) regardless of Oscar contention. Parasite and 1917 are not nominated here so it’s an open road for the Oscar frontrunner.
Presenters and other attendees confirmed to date include (in alphabetical order): Aisling Bea, Andrew Scott, Anthony Welsh, Asa Butterfield, Asim Chaudhry, Daisy Ridley, Daniel Kaluuya, Dean-Charles Chapman, Ella Balinska, Emilia Clarke, George MacKay, Gillian Anderson, Hugh Grant, Sir Ian McKellen, Jodie Turner-Smith, Joe Alwyn, John Boyega, Kristin Scott Thomas, Lily-Rose Depp, Mark Strong, Naomi Ackie, Naomie Harris, Niamh Algar, Olivia Colman, Rebel Wilson, Richard E. Grant, Roman Griffin Davis, Sharon Horgan, Song Kang Ho, Stephen Graham, Vanessa Kirby, and Zazie Beetz.
Kathleen Kennedy will be honoured with the BAFTA Fellowship and Andy Serkis will receive the Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema Award.
The EE British Academy Film Awards take place at the Royal Albert Hall. The ceremony will be hosted by Graham Norton and will be broadcast exclusively on BBC One, BBC One HD and BBC iPlayer.
Here are my predictions for the 73rd British Academy Film Awards BAFTA awards with one potential spoiler for each.
BEST FILM
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, JOKER, ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
Other nominees: BAIT, FOR SAMA, ROCKETMAN, SORRY WE MISSED YOU
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Other nominees: MAIDEN, Alex Holmes (Director); ONLY YOU, Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director); RETABLO, Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Other nominees: THE FAREWELL, PAIN AND GLORY, PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE
DOCUMENTARY
Other nominees: AMERICAN FACTORY, APOLLO 11, THE GREAT HACK
ANIMATED FILM
Other nominees: FROZEN 2, A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
DIRECTOR
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, Martin Scorsese; JOKER, Todd Phillips; ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD, Quentin Tarantino
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Other nominees: BOOKSMART, KNIVES OUT, MARRIAGE STORY
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, JOKER, THE TWO POPES
LEADING ACTRESS
Other nominees: JESSIE BUCKLEY, Wild Rose; SAOIRSE RONAN, Little Women; CHARLIZE THERON, Bombshell
LEADING ACTOR
Other nominees: LEONARDO DICAPRIO, Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood; TARON EGERTON, Rocketman; JONATHAN PRYCE, The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Other nominees: SCARLETT JOHANSSON, Jojo Rabbit; MARGOT ROBBIE, Bombshell; MARGOT ROBBIE, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Other nominees: TOM HANKS, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood; ANTHONY HOPKINS, The Two Popes; AL PACINO, The Irishman
ORIGINAL SCORE
Other nominees: JOJO RABBIT, LITTLE WOMEN, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
CASTING
Other nominees: JOKER, THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD, THE TWO POPES
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, LE MANS ’66, THE LIGHTHOUSE
EDITING
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, JOJO RABBIT, ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, JOJO RABBIT, JOKER
COSTUME DESIGN
Other nominees: THE IRISHMAN, JUDY, ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD
MAKE UP & HAIR
Other nominees: 1917, JUDY, ROCKETMAN
SOUND
Other nominees: JOKER, ROCKETMAN, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Other nominees: AVENGERS: ENDGAME, THE IRISHMAN, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
Other nominees: KAITLYN DEVER, KELVIN HARRISON JR., MICHEAL WARD
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