2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (July)

The Irishman (Netflix) and Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox) hold their positions in Adapted Screenplay this month but there’s a lot of movement elsewhere, including a brand new entry (sort of). I’m bumping up Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) for the month, I just think the film is going to be a stellar player across the board and outside of Downhill (the Force Majeure remake) it’s the studio’s main horse in this screenplay race.

Falling this month are A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Little Women (both Sony/Columbia). The fall festival circuit, and where each of them land (if at all) could change that. For ABDitN, it’s only a small tick down – it’s still in the top 5. There is also the ongoing question of whether it will officially fall under adapted or original but logic and history says this is where it will stay. For Greta Gerwig’s Christmas release Little Women, the oft-told Louisa May Alcott story might find itself a story too often told and just miss from this group. The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros) and The Good Liar (Warner Bros) tumble into the Other Contenders list as longshots.

Rising this month in their places is another upcoming Warner Bros film, Motherless Brooklyn. The Edward Norton-directed film has some legal issues to contend with (an on-set death) that might cloud its release but I’ve heard great things about the film and it might become WB’s best shot here after Just Mercy. The new Untitled Todd Haynes (aka Dry Run) would be Focus Features’ best shot here and I feel might be a good player overall after Harriet for the studio.

Two new entries this month: The Joker (also Warner Bros) could be just the type of dark comic screenplay that hits with the writers branch. And Aeronauts, which I also have in Original Screenplay shows up here in a big way – debuting in the top 5. The reason for that is that a recent test screening had a title card that listed it was adapted from a book source, yet no book source is listed anywhere for it. [Update: the book source has been found] Is it a case where the book will be released after or to coincide with the film like Darkest Hour? It remains to be seen but as this is another film receiving some strong word of mouth ahead of Venice, Telluride and Toronto, I can’t not have it represented here.

I removed The Farewell from Adapted last month and received official confirmation this weekend that it indeed will be an Original Screenplay so there it will stay.

Here are my ranked 2020 Oscar Nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay for July 15, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. The Irishman (Netflix)
2. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/Columbia)
4. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
5. Aeronauts (Amazon)

NEXT UP (alphabetical)

Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
The Laundromat (Netflix)
Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)
Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical)

Downhill (Fox Searchlight)
The Glorias: A Life on the Roads (TBD)
The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros)
The Joker (Warner Bros)
The King (Netflix)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Netflix)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Radioactive (Amazon)
Toy Story 4 (Disney/Pixar)

Adapted or Original?

Aeronauts (Amazon)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/Columbia)
Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)