2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: FILM EDITING and CINEMATOGRAPHY (August)

The below the line categories of Film Editing and Cinematography are getting their first predictions of the season and we know how integral film editing continues to be as a bellwether in Best Picture. Last season, when Green Book got an editing nomination and Roma didn’t (shades of Crash and Brokeback Mountain), that should have been a pretty big clue as to where the Academy was going to go. Since 1980 only Ordinary People and Birdman have managed Best Picture wins without it. Interestingly enough, only one time this decade has the film editing Oscar winner been tied to the Best Picture winner. Only 2012’s Argo has managed that feat.

This season is looking at Oscar heavyweight Thelma Schoonmaker (Netflix’s The Irishman), a 7-time nominee and 3-time winner, going head to head with a score of editors looking for their first nomination. The editors of 20th Century Fox’s Ford v Ferrari, Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and Fox Searchlight’s Jojo Rabbit are just some of the folks that are going to give Schoonmaker a run for her money and we have a few female editors in the mix too: Anne McCabe for Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Jennifer Lame for Netflix’s Marriage Story. In this decade we’ve seen two years that held more than one female editor nominated, a stat that has improved dramatically over the decades that preceded it.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Film Editing for August 12, 2019.

1. The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker) Netflix
2. Ford v. Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker) 20th Century Fox
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Fred Raskin) Sony/Columbia
4. Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles) Fox Searchlight
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Anne McCabe) Sony/TriStar

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

1917 (Lee Smith) Universal
The Aeronauts (Mark Eckersley) Amazon
The Farewell (Matthew Friedman, Michael Taylor) A24
Harriet (Wyatt Smith) Focus Features
Marriage Story (Jennifer Lame) Netflix

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (John Axelrad, Lee Haugen) 20th Century Fox
The Goldfinch (Kelley Dixon) Amazon/Warner Bros
Little Women (Nick Houy) Sony/Columbia
Motherless Brooklyn (Joe Klotz) Warner Bros
Rocketman (Chris Dickens) Paramount
Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon, Stefan Grube) Disney
The Two Popes (Fernando Stutz) Netflix
Uncut Gems (TBD) A24
Untitled Roger Ailes Project aka Fair and Balanced (John Poll) Lionsgate
Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run aka Dark Water (TBD) Focus Features
Us (Nicholas Monsour) Universal

While cinematography isn’t a crucial nom, it is one of the below the line categories that a nomination in can bolster a film’s chances at a Best Picture win. Since 2000, 11 Best Picture winners had corresponding nominations (or wins) in cinematography. But it’s also a branch that will reach out beyond the groupthink of Best Picture. In 2006, all five nominees came from films not nominated for Best Picture. High profile black and white films have found nomination success here in the last two decades, including Ida, Nebraska and Best Picture winner The Artist. You’ll also find one-off nominations for films like Silence, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Grandmaster. This year, something like The Lighthouse could fit both both bills.

It’s a branch that has its favorites too; Roger Deakins (1917, The Goldfinch) has 14 nominations here (he finally won, for a non-BP nominee – Blade Runner 2049 – in 2017). Robert Richardson (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood) is also popular here, with 9 nominations and three wins. Both are top contenders this year as well. Last season, 6-time nominee Caleb Deschanel shocked by earning that 6th for the German film Never Look Away, a nomination no one saw coming. This year, he could sneak in, and make Oscar history, with all-CGI, photorealistic remake of The Lion King.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions for Cinematography for August 12, 2019.

1. 1917 (Roger Deakins) Universal
2. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Robert Richardson) Sony/Columbia
3. The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto) Netflix
4. Ford v. Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael) 20th Century Fox
5. The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke) A24

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema) 20th Century Fox
The Aeronauts (George Steel) Amazon
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai Mălaimare Jr.) Fox Searchlight
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux) Sony/Columbia
Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run aka Dark Water (Ed Lachman) Focus Features

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Jody Lee Lipes) Sony/TriStar
The Farewell (Anna Francesa Solano) A24
The Goldfinch (Roger Deakins) Amazon/Warner Bros
Harriet (John Toll) Focus Features
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer) Fox Searchlight
Joker (Lawrence Sher) Warner Bros
Just Mercy (Brett Pawlak) Warner Bros
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel) Disney
Motherless Brooklyn (Dick Pope) Warner Bros
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Zach Nicholson) TBD
Radioactive (Anthony Dod Mantle) Amazon
Seberg (Rachel Morrison) Amazon
Star Wars Episode 9: The Rise of Skywalker (Dan Mindel) Disney
The Two Popes (César Charlone) Netflix
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji) A24
Untitled Roger Ailes Project aka Fair and Balanced (Barry Ackroyd) Lionsgate