Sat. Jul 11th, 2020

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (August)

MARRIAGE STORY (Photo: Netflix)

With the confirmation that Amazon’s The Aeronauts is an adapted screenplay, that opens up a spot in this month’s chart, in the top five, no less. Which is a good thing, because last month’s chart was at a near stand still.

This month, the top 3 remain the same but not in the same spots. There is a new #1 for August, and it’s Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story from Netflix. Between last month’s chart and this month’s, the highly anticipated film got a title and is set to be the only film of 2019 to hit all four major fall festivals – Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York.

Also moving up are A24’s The Farewell, which has enjoyed excellent box office in its limited release and just passed $10M while still showing in fewer than 1,000 theaters – the only film of 2019 to do so. The opening in the top 5 makes room for Neon’s Parasite, the Cannes hit that’s also going to get a huge fall festival play.

With The Aeronauts out and Parasite bumped up, Universal’s Us moves into the Next Up section. Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood takes a dip from #1 to #3 but it’s safe to stay in the top 5 for now.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Original Screenplay for August 13, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. The Farewell (A24)
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony)
4. Harriet (Focus Features)
5. Parasite (Neon)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

1917 (Universal)
Booksmart (Annapurna)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Us (Universal)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Bad Education (TBD)
Clemency (Neon)
The French Dispatch (TBD)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Long Time Coming (Warner Bros)
Luce (Neon)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
The Report (Amazon)
Seberg (Amazon)
The Souvenir (A24)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Untitled Roger Ailes Project aka Fair and Balanced (Lionsgate)
Waves (A24)
Wendy (Fox Searchlight)

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