2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

Now this is a juicy category. Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original is jam-packed with so many contenders it’s going to be a bit of a bloodbath when the nominations are announced.

Parasite, after its boffo box office opening weekend creeps up and into the top 3. The top 3 here (Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) are all worthy contenders and each can stake a claim for a win.

Last month I went high on Universal’s 1917, placing it in the top 5. Unusual for a war film to land a nomination here, even Dunkirk couldn’t pull it off. But I still think there’s something there that can make it happen and I’m sticking with it for now.

The big move this month is Bombshell. After a rapturous response to critics and SAG screenings this week, the Fox News exposé from the Oscar-winning co-writer of The Big Short, and starring Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie could break into the top 5 here if it’s a major contender elsewhere, and it very well could be.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Original Screenplay for October 16, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
3. Parasite (Neon)
4. The Farewell (A24)
5. 1917 (Universal)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Booksmart (Annapurna)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Us (Universal)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Clemency (Neon)
Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Harriet (Focus Features)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
The Report (Amazon)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Waves (A24)