Sat. Dec 7th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (September)

A much more competitive category than adapted, Original Screenplay this month sees some moves up, a big fall, a ‘new’ entry and what’s starting to feel like a pretty solid top 3.

Netflix’s Marriage Story remains in the top spot for the second month and its first runner-up status at Toronto last week only helps solidify its status. Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and A24’s The Farewell swap spots but I don’t see a scenario in which two-time Original Screenplay winner Quentin Tarantino and newcomer Lulu Wang aren’t here to stay.

There’s more green to be had in the top 5 with TIFF 2nd runner-up and Palme d’Or winner Parasite moving up to #4 and Universal’s 1917 finds berth at #5. I’m hearing absolute raves for the WWI film with the screenplay as a standout, not easy to do. Even Dunkirk didn’t pull that off. Lionsgate’s inches up with its super smart whodunnit Knives Out.

As mentioned in the Adapted Screenplay predictions, Fox’s Ford v Ferrari is now over here in Original where it’s going to face an uphill battle. Harriet falls hard, out of the top 5, all the way down into Other Contenders.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Original Screenplay for September 19, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
3. The Farewell (A24)
4. Parasite (Neon)
5. 1917 (Universal)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

Booksmart (Annapurna)
Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Us (Universal)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Clemency (Neon)
Harriet (Focus Features)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Luce (Neon)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
The Report (Amazon)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Waves (A24)

ADAPTED OR ORIGINAL?

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
The Two Popes (Netflix)

Let us know what you think!

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