Thu. Nov 14th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

Could Wesley Snipes in DOLEMITE IS MY NAME be a career comeback? (Photo: YouTube)

Tom Hanks (Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) is back in the #1 for Supporting Actor for August with the announcement of the film’s world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF). I’ve gone back and forth with him and Brad Pitt (Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood), who falls to #2, but both are also in the Lead or Supporting section until we know exactly where each is going to be officially run. We might not even know until the Screen Actors Guild deadline (which is when we learned the category placements for The Favourite last year).

Christian Bale (20th Century Fox’s Ford v Ferrari) is another head scratcher. I’ve seen pundits with him in lead but it’s still up in the air whether Fox will put him there or Matt Damon. It goes without saying that for both Bale/Damon and Pitt/DiCaprio that no two lead actors have been Oscar-nominated from the same film since 1984’s Amadeus.

That move for Hanks also bumps down Al Pacino in Netflix’s The Irishman, where he plays Jimmy Hoffa. He’ll contend more with his co-star Joe Pesci more than anyone.

More moves up include Jamie Foxx into the top five for Warner Bros’ Just Mercy and Alan Alda for Netflix’s Marriage Story (there’s a legit chance this film will be the first to get nominations in all acting categories since 2013’s American Hustle).

Another move up, and down, is Willem Dafoe. Even though he received stellar reviews for A24’s The Lighthouse, it might be a bit too much for the Academy. He subverted most expectations just this year by being nominated for At Eternity’s Gate but I wonder if he stands a better chance with Warner Bros’ Motherless Brooklyn instead. The film is closing the New York Film Festival in October, hitting the Toronto International Film Festival in September but making its world premiere at Telluride. That’s a pretty great run and tremendous visibility.

A big move this month goes to Wesley Snipes in Netflix’s Dolemite Is My Name. While there are quite a few comeback narratives being written this season (including Joe Pesci, in this category), I can see one building around Snipes. With his tax troubles behind him, Hollywood could embrace him (if they do the same to Eddie Murphy) and get him his first Oscar nomination.

I’m also keeping an eye out for Sterling K. Brown in Waves and Lakeith Stanfield in Uncut Gems, both from A24. They’re also both set to launch at Telluride.

I’ve created a new section called Watch Out For especially for performances and actors/actresses that could very well spoil anyone in the top 10. It holds moves up from Other Contenders and moves down from the top five and Next Up.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actor for August 14, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
2. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
3. Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix)
4. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
5. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Alan Alda – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Willem Dafoe – Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix)
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
John Lithgow – Untitled Roger Ailes Project aka Fair and Balanced (Lionsgate)
Tim Robbins – Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run or Dark Water (Focus Features)
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is My Name (Netflix)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Antonio Banderas – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Jamie Bell – Rocketman (Paramount)
Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Peter Capaldi – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Timothée Chalamet – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Willem Dafoe – The Last Thing He Wanted (Netflix)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Song Kang-ho – Parasite (Neon)
Hugh Laurie – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Ray Liotta – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Anthony Mackie – Seberg (Amazon)
Jonathan Majors – The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ian McKellen – Cats (Universal)
Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet (Focus Features)
Gary Oldman – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Bill Pullman – Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run or Dark Water (Focus Features)
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Lakeith Stanfield – Uncut Gems (A24)
David Strathairn – Nomadland (Fox Searchlight)
Ben Whishaw – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Jeffrey Wright – The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros)
Jeffrey Wright – The Laundromat (Netflix)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
Lucas Hedges – Waves (A24)
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
Gary Oldman – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)

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