2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

Supporting Actor is still a bit of a challenge Christian Bale’s category placement for Ford v Ferrari still up in the air so I’m keeping him here until Fox makes an official announcement. Same goes for Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes. A near co-lead, Hopkins could very find himself a frontrunner in supporting with more screen time than he had in Silence of the Lambs, which won him Best Actor.

We now know that Sony is officially pushing Tom Hanks in supporting for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (the right choice) but they’re holding back on Brad Pitt’s placement in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Is Pitt a co-lead? Yes, he is. Did we not just see a co-lead win here last year? Yes, we did. It would be a huge mistake to push Pitt in an already packed Best Actor category against his own co-star (we haven’t seen dual lead actors from the same film since 1984’s Amadeus) and Pitt actually stands a real chance of winning here. In fact, he’s back at #1 this month.

The Irishman‘s Al Pacino and Joe Pesci are an Oscar-winning duo both looking to come back after a long time away from awards glory. It’s a risky bet still to think that they can both make it in though. Yes, Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson just did it two years ago for Three Billboards but it had been 26 years before it happened again. Three Billboards ended up being a major Academy Award nominated and winning film and the pair showed up at SAG and BAFTA but it wasn’t a given. For Pacino and Pesci, playing real-life people in a mobbed up Martin Scorsese return to his gangster roots, that in and of itself seems tough to bet against. But even in Scorsese’s biggest Oscar hits, scoring double acting nominations just isn’t something he’s been able to do. I look at The Departed as the best example of this. There you had multiple Oscar-nominated and Oscar-winning actors in what would eventually, finally, be Scorsese’s Best Picture and Best Director winner. Leonardo DiCaprio got lead nominations from the Globes, SAG and BAFTA yet missed out in favor of his other lead performance in Blood Diamond. Jack Nicholson earned Globe and BAFTA nominations in supporting yet missed out to Mark Wahlberg. At the moment I’m sticking with Pacino getting the nomination but I know that Pesci is right there in it. If Bale goes lead, for example, it’s probably Pesci who benefits the most.

The most exciting move up and possibility in this category is Song Kang-ho from Parasite. While the film is taking everyone by storm, including Oscar pundits, to really get it to the next level it needs an actor to get in. A true ensemble piece, we still don’t know if Neon is going to have everyone in supporting or go for one or two lead pushes. What we do know though is that it’s Song who has been at director Bong Joon-ho’s side at film festivals, screenings, events and Q&As. He’s the clear push, it just depends on where.

Shia LaBeouf makes his first appearance on the chart for Honey Boy, in which he plays his own father from a script he wrote. He’s devastatingly good in the role and has been a major player on the festival circuit for his film. It’s an outside shot, to be sure, but a comeback story that Hollywood loves.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actor for October 17, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
2. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
3. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
4. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
5. Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Alan Alda – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
Song Kang-ho – Parasite (Neon)
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix)
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Tracy Letts – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
John Lithgow – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Jamie Bell – Rocketman (Paramount)
Bill Camp – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Timothée Chalamet – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Willem Dafoe – Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy (Amazon)
Ray Liotta – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Jonathan Majors – The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ian McKellen – Cats (Universal)
Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet (Focus Features)
Bill Pullman – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Tim Robbins – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell (Warner Bros)
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)