2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September)

Tom “I haven’t been nominated since 2000” Hanks and Brad “I’m not going to campaign” Pitt remain atop the Supporting Actor list for September because of, and maybe despite, themselves.

I almost yanked Hanks from the top spot after Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood failed to place at the TIFF People’s Choice Awards but I still think the film will connect with audiences this Thanksgiving. If it does then it’s going to be hard for him not to make a major Oscar comeback after his shocking Captain Phillips snub. Pitt may not want to campaign but that in and of itself could be its own campaign.

Moving up are three Telluride/Toronto entries that were already in good shape but now find themselves in great shape. Christian Bale in Fox’s Ford v Ferrari (unless they push him lead), Anthony Hopkins in Netflix’s The Two Popes and Alan Alda in Netflix’s Marriage Story. Bale and Hopkins are previous winners with Hopkins having been away from the Oscar limelight since 1997’s Amistad. Alda would be quite the get here. He’s a previous (surprise) nominee in this category for 2004’s The Aviator as well as being a beloved television icon and winner of multiple Emmys and Golden Globes. A nomination here (presuming that Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson and Laura Dern are all in) would make it the first film to earn acting nominations in all categories since 2013’s American Hustle.

Sterling K. Brown moves up for his superb turn in A24’s Waves, which debuted at Telluride. The film might have a tough road with voters overall but Brown may be undeniable, especially if SAG and Golden Globe voters set the path for him.

I keep yo-yoing with Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse, then Motherless Brooklyn and now I’m back to The Lighthouse. It might be just a bit too weird for voters but Dafoe is in an awards career trajectory right now that might be enough.

I’m watching out for Parasite‘s Song Kang-ho, the patriarch of Bong Joon-ho’s grifter family as well as Tracy Letts as the grandson of Henry Ford in Ford v Ferrari. For Letts it will all depend on where Fox places Bale and Matt Damon. If they’re bold and and push them both lead then a door opens for Letts.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actor for September 18, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
2. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
3. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
4. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
5. Alan Alda – Marriage Story (Netflix)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Sterling K. Brown – Waves (A24)
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix)
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Song Kang-ho – Parasite (Neon)
Tracy Letts – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
John Lithgow – Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix)
Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Jamie Bell – Rocketman (Paramount)
Bill Camp – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Timothée Chalamet – Little Women (Sony/Columbia)
Willem Dafoe – Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Ray Liotta – Marriage Story (Netflix)
Jonathan Majors – The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ian McKellen – Cats (Universal)
Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet (Focus Features)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Bill Pullman – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Tim Robbins – Dark Waters (Focus Features)
Lakeith Stanfield – Uncut Gems (A24)
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse (A24)
Matt Damon – Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix)
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse (A24)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)