Wed. Sep 18th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (August)

Meryl Streep (THE LAUNDROMAT) is always a contender…but will it be in lead or supporting?
(photo: Claudette Barius/Netflix)

It’s weirdly quiet in Supporting Actress this month. Laura Dern remains on top for Netflix’s Marriage Story, where she plays a tough lawyer in a divorce case between Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson. Dern is Hollywood royalty with two nominations under her belt and a member of the acting branch of the Board of Governors of the Academy. With Little Women also coming this Christmas, Dern is is excellent position for both a career and performance award.

Speaking of Johansson, she moves up one to the #2 spot but not for Marriage Story, for her other fall release, Fox Searchlight’s Jojo Rabbit. The timing of these predictions is coming right off the heels of reports that Disney execs are nervous about Taika Waititi’s Hitler satire and I can already see some pundits starting to back away from the film. I’m digging my heels in a bit and will wait for the response at the Toronto International Film Festival, where the film will world premiere.

Margot Robbie (Sony/Columbia’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood) dips a bit and Shuzhen Zhao (A24’s The Farewell) and Meryl Streep (Netflix’s The Laundromat, although some sites have her only in lead, a mistake in my opinion based on my intel) hold on to their 4-5 placements. What a few months ago probably seemed like a pipe dream for Zhao to some is looking more and more like a locked in nomination. I’m glad to have been on the Shuzhen train since April.

I must admit too that the idea of Dern and Streep going head to head at all awards shows not just for film but also for Big Little Lies (which will compete at SAG and the Golden Globes this season) is kind of exciting.

Annette Bening (Amazon’s The Report) moves back up after rumor that the streamer plans to (surprisingly) drop her film into Telluride just a few weeks ahead of its theatrical debut and then streaming debut two weeks later. That drops Octavia Spencer down (Neon’s Luce) for now, but Spencer is always such a formidable contender that she’s never out of a race.

I’ve created a new section called Watch Out For especially for performances and actors/actresses that could very well spoil anyone in the top 10. It holds moves up from Other Contenders and moves down from the top five and Next Up.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Supporting Actress for August 14, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Netflix)
2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
3. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)
4. Shuzhen Zhao – The Farewell (A24)
5. Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Netflix)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by actor)

Annette Bening – The Report (Amazon)
Brie Larson – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Janelle Monaé – Harriet (Focus Features)
Florence Pugh – Little Women (Sony)

WATCH OUT FOR (alphabetical by actor)

Anne Hathaway – Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run or Dark Water (Focus Features)
Jennifer Hudson – Cats (Universal)
Allison Janney – Bad Education (TBD)
Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey (Focus Features)
Octavia Spencer – Luce (Neon)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by actor)

Juliette Binoche – The Truth (IFC Films)
Ellen Burstyn – Lucy in the Sky (Fox Searchlight)
Vanessa Bell Calloway – Harriet (Focus Features)
Penélope Cruz – Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
Catherine Deneuve – The Truth (IFC Films)
Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros)
Nicole Kidman – Untitled Roger Ailes Project aka Fair and Balanced (Lionsgate)
Ruth Negga – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Anna Paquin – The Irishman (Netflix)
Margaret Qualley – Seberg (Amazon)
Sharon Stone – The Laundromat (Netflix)
Tilda Swinton – The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Tilda Swinton – The Souvenir (A24)
Mare Winningham – Untitled Todd Hayes aka Dry Run or Dark Water (Focus Features)

LEAD OR SUPPORTING?

Juliette Binoche – The Truth (IFC Films)
Catherine Deneuve – The Truth (IFC Films)
Allison Janney – Bad Education (TBD)
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Brie Larson – Just Mercy (Warner Bros)
Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Netflix)

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