2021 BAFTA preview and predictions: Is a British wave coming?

Throw everything you think you know about how BAFTA votes right out the window. This year, BAFTA chucked its old voting formats right in the bin and started brand new. After years of questionable nominations that lacked diversity and culminating in their 2019 awards having zero people of color in the acting categories but making room for two Margot Robbie nominations in one category, the org went to work to reshape and revitalize itself from the ground up and the top down.

At least 1,000 new voting members will be added over the next two years. There will be a strong focus on recruiting from under-represented groups with a ‘A Future Membership Group’  comprised of current BAFTA members from a variety of backgrounds. This group will be focused solely on identifying future members from underrepresented groups.

Voting itself received a huge overhaul. In order to align the acting category to all other craft categories, voting in the four acting categories was moved to Chapter voting (by branch, like the Oscars) and bringing back the longlists. 

In round one, the acting chapter ranked their top 15, with the top 12 longlisted. A specially convened longlisting jury will select the final three based on the performances placed 13-22 of the chapter vote to ensure intersectional diversity on the acting longlists. 

In round two, a small nominating jury of 7-12 people, of which only 50% needed to be BAFTA members, chose six nominees from the 15 longlisted performances (this is an increase from five from previous years). The increase from five to six was implemented to allow for a broader representation in nominees.

Similarly, the directing chapter ranked the top 20 to create the longlist. The top eight female and top eight male directors progressed directly to the longlist. A specially convened longlisting jury then selected the final four directors – two female and two male (from the next 10 ranked respectively) – for a final longlist of 20. A nominating jury then selected the top six directors to be nominated.

In round three of all of these categories, all BAFTA members voted to choose the winners from the final nominations set by the juries and chapters. 

What this this was gave us the wildest set of nominees we’ve seen from BAFTA in some time, with seemingly locked frontrunners snubbed and new voices and faces recognized. The Best Film category, which stayed the same showed exactly how big the variance was with a largely traditional-looking top 5 with one exception. The Mauritanian over Mank or Minari was definitely seen as a surprise, even by BAFTA standards.

Will we see the acting categories go 3/4 with the Screen Actors Guild, who just announced last weekend? SAG winner Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is not nominated but her fellow Oscar nominees Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) are. Best Actress has so far gone to a different person for each precursor and without Davis here BAFTA will give us a fourth. But don’t assume it will be one of those two just yet, we could see BAFTA membership create a British wave and go for Bukky Bukray, who’s film Rocks did very well here, with seven nominations. Speaking of, I think Supporting Actress, which features two Oscar nominees – Maria Bakalova and SAG winner Youn Yuh-jung – will find steep competition from Kosar Ali, who I’m predicting to upset. SAG has made for one of the most exciting races in decades, from an Oscar prognosticator and watcher’s point of view and BAFTA could make it even wilder. This is also kind of the last stand for Anthony Hopkins (The Father). While it seems a longshot to defeat Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Hopkins and his film could be embraced by their brethren in multiple categories where it’s competitive: Editing, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design. Not to mention Outstanding British Film.

So how will the overall voting body react to the juried nominations that it’s clear would likely not have made it in otherwise? Do the directing and acting nominations that Minari got help it when the film couldn’t pull off a Best Picture nomination? Or will there be a rebuke by the membership for the changes imposed on them and vote where they can for films they wanted to see more of, like Promising Young Woman or The Trial of the Chicago 7? It’s impossible to say but it’s going to make looking back on this year a fascinating one because BAFTA will either embrace or push back on these changes. Like the Oscars, these awards bodies aren’t fans of being told how to vote but this has been a year of seismic change on every level and it might be enough to inspire lasting and real change.

Where I think we can look to BAFTA for some crystal ball possibilities for the Oscars will be in the below the line categories where films are competing against each other with both awards bodies. Film Editing, which is a truly exciting four-way fight between The Father, Nomadland, Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7, will be one to watch. I’m leaning Sound of Metal here, which is where 2014’s Whiplash made its big move to Oscar success. The Visual Effects Society went for The Midnight Sky over Tenet but I think it will be flipped here, despite the general underperformance of both films. Makeup and Hair will be another fun fight, in what I think is a very close race, between double MUAH winner Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Hillbilly Elegy and MUAH winner Pinocchio. I feel like the common sense pick is Ma Rainey but this could be where Pinocchio’s phenomenal prosthetic work takes over and becomes the Oscar dark horse. Costume Design is another place for Ma Rainey to potentially succeed but I think, after six nominations, Alexandra Byrne might finally claim a mask, for Emma. A win for Ma Rainey‘s Ann Roth would be something for the 89-year old, her first since 1975’s The Day of the Locust.

Film Not in the English Language could go three ways: the seeming frontrunner Another Round, which also made it into Director, Actor and Original Screenplay; Minari, a directing and acting nominee or Quo Vadis, Aida?, also a directing nominee. Only Round and Aida are Oscar-nominated so logic would say it’s one of those two (although BAFTA has deviated from Oscar nominees here before) but Minari has also won a healthy amount of these wins, including the Golden Globe over Another Round. I’m going with Another Round on the strength of the film in its other categories but a win for Minari, even after failing to even make the Best Film longlist, wouldn’t surprise me.

The 2021 EE BAFTA awards ceremony will be split over two nights. British radio and television presenter Clara Amfo will host the EE BAFTA Film Awards Opening Night, as it will be called, on Saturday April 10, and will air live on BBC Two. Amfo will be joined by panel of yet-be-announced guests from the Royal Albert Hall. A total of eight BAFTA winners will be revealed that evening alongside a presentation of the nominated films, including behind-the-scenes footage highlighting the creative process. The Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema award will be the only in-person awards moment of the night. For night two, Amfo will interview BAFTA presenters live from the Royal Albert Hall, with Edith Bowman and Dermot O’Leary taking co-host duties the main BAFTA show, which will air on BBC One. The remaining 17 awards will be handed out here, including the public-voted Rising Star Award and the BAFTA fellowship.

Here are my predictions for the 2021 EE BAFTA Film Awards with one to watch out for in each category.

BEST FILM

• THE FATHER – Philippe Carcassonne, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt
• THE MAURITANIAN – Adam Ackland, Leah Clarke, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin
• NOMADLAND – Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Stuart Besser, Marc Platt

Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao

Watch out for: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara

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OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

• CALM WITH HORSES – Nick Rowland, Daniel Emmerson, Joe Murtagh
• THE DIG – Simon Stone, Gabrielle Tana, Moira Buffini
• THE FATHER – Florian Zeller, Philippe Carcassone, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christopher Hampton
• HIS HOUSE – Remi Weekes, Martin Gentles, Edward King, Roy Lee
• LIMBO – Ben Sharrock, Irune Gurtubai, Angus Lamont
• THE MAURITANIAN – Kevin Macdonald, Adam Ackland, Leah Clarke, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, M.B. Traven
• MOGUL MOWGLI – Bassam Tariq, Riz Ahmed, Thomas Benski, Bennett McGhee
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara
• ROCKS – Sarah Gavron, Ameenah Ayub Allen, Faye Ward, Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson
• SAINT MAUD – Rose Glass, Andrea Cornwell, Oliver Kassman

Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Josey McNamara

Watch out for: THE FATHER – Florian Zeller, Philippe Carcassone, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christopher Hampton

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OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

• HIS HOUSE – Remi Weekes (Writer/Director)
• LIMBO – Ben Sharrock (Writer/Director), Irune Gurtubai (Producer) [also produced by Angus Lamont]
• MOFFIE – Jack Sidey (Writer/Producer) [also written by Oliver Hermanus and produced by Eric Abraham]
• ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson (Writers)
• SAINT MAUD – Rose Glass (Writer/Director), Oliver Kassman (Producer) [also produced by Andrea Cornwell]

Predicted winner: SAINT MAUD – Rose Glass (Writer/Director), Oliver Kassman (Producer) [also produced by Andrea Cornwell]

Watch out for: ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson (Writers)

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FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg, Kasper Dissing, Sisse Graum Jørgensen
• DEAR COMRADES! – Andrei Konchalovsky, Alisher Usmanov
• LES MISÉRABLES – Ladj Ly, Toufik Ayadi, Christophe Barral
• MINARI – Lee Isaac Chung, Christina Oh
• QUO VADIS, AIDA? – Jasmila Žbanić, Damir Ibrahimovich

Predicted winner: ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg, Kasper Dissing, Sisse Graum Jørgensen

Watch out for: MINARI – Lee Isaac Chung, Christina Oh

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DOCUMENTARY

• COLLECTIVE – Alexander Nanau
• DAVID ATTENBOROUGH: A LIFE ON OUR PLANET – Alastair Fothergill, Jonnie Hughes, Keith Scholey
• THE DISSIDENT – Bryan Fogel, Thor Halvorssen, Mark Monroe, Jake Swantko
• MY OCTOPUS TEACHER – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, Craig Foster
• THE SOCIAL DILEMMA – Jeff Orlowski, Larissa Rhodes

Predicted winner: MY OCTOPUS TEACHER – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, Craig Foster

Watch out for: COLLECTIVE – Alexander Nanau

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ANIMATED FILM

• ONWARD – Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae
• SOUL – Pete Docter, Dana Murray
• WOLFWALKERS – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young

Predicted winner: SOUL – Pete Docter, Dana Murray

Watch out for: WOLFWALKERS – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young

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DIRECTOR

• ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg
• BABYTEETH – Shannon Murphy
• MINARI – Lee Isaac Chung
• NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
• QUO VADIS, AIDA? – Jasmila Žbanić
• ROCKS – Sarah Gavron

Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao

Watch out for: ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• ANOTHER ROUND – Tobias Lindholm, Thomas Vinterberg
• MANK – Jack Fincher
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell
• ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Aaron Sorkin

Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell

Watch out for: ROCKS – Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• THE DIG – Moira Buffini
• THE FATHER – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
• THE MAURITANIAN – Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, M.B. Traven
• NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
• THE WHITE TIGER – Ramin Bahrani

Predicted winner: THE FATHER – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

Watch out for: NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao

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LEADING ACTRESS

• BUKKY BAKRAY – Rocks
• RADHA BLANK – The Forty-Year-Old Version
• VANESSA KIRBY – Pieces of a Woman
• FRANCES McDORMAND – Nomadland
• WUNMI MOSAKU – His House
• ALFRE WOODARD – Clemency

Predicted winner: FRANCES McDORMAND – Nomadland

Watch out for: BUKKY BAKRAY – Rocks

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LEADING ACTOR

• RIZ AHMED – Sound of Metal
• CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• ADARSH GOURAV – The White Tiger
• ANTHONY HOPKINS – The Father
• MADS MIKKELSEN – Another Round
• TAHAR RAHIM – The Mauritanian

Predicted winner: CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Watch out for: ANTHONY HOPKINS – The Father

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• NIAMH ALGAR – Calm With Horses
• KOSAR ALI – Rocks
• MARIA BAKALOVA – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• DOMINIQUE FISHBACK – Judas and the Black Messiah
• ASHLEY MADEKWE – County Lines
• YUH-JUNG YOUN – Minari

Predicted winner: KOSAR ALI – Rocks

Watch out for: MARIA BAKALOVA – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

• DANIEL KALUUYA – Judas and the Black Messiah
• BARRY KEOGHAN – Calm With Horses
• ALAN KIM – Minari
• LESLIE ODOM JR. – One Night in Miami…
• CLARKE PETERS – Da 5 Bloods
• PAUL RACI – Sound of Metal

Predicted winner: DANIEL KALUUYA – Judas and the Black Messiah

Watch out for: PAUL RACI – Sound of Metal

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ORIGINAL SCORE

• MANK – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
• MINARI – Emile Mosseri
• NEWS OF THE WORLD – James Newton Howard
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Anthony Willis
• SOUL – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Predicted winner: SOUL – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Watch out for: MANK – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

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CASTING

• CALM WITH HORSES – Shaheen Baig
• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – Alexa L. Fogel
• MINARI – Julia Kim
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Mary Vernieu
• ROCKS – Lucy Pardee

Predicted winner: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Mary Vernieu

Watch out for: ROCKS – Lucy Pardee

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CINEMATOGRAPHY

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – Sean Bobbitt
• MANK – Erik Messerschmidt
• THE MAURITANIAN – Alwin H. Küchler
• NEWS OF THE WORLD – Dariusz Wolski
• NOMADLAND – Joshua James Richards

Predicted winner: NOMADLAND – Joshua James Richards

Watch out for: MANK – Erik Messerschmidt

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EDITING

• THE FATHER – Yorgos Lamprinos
• NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Frédéric Thoraval
• SOUND OF METAL – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Alan Baumgarten

Predicted winner: SOUND OF METAL – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

Watch out for: THE FATHER – Yorgos Lamprinos

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PRODUCTION DESIGN

• THE DIG – Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald
• THE FATHER – Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone
• MANK – Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale
• NEWS OF THE WORLD – David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan
• REBECCA – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Predicted winner: MANK – Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

Watch out for: THE FATHER – Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone

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COSTUME DESIGN

• AMMONITE – Michael O’Connor
• THE DIG – Alice Babidge
• EMMA. – Alexandra Byrne
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Ann Roth
• MANK – Trish Summerville

Predicted winner: EMMA. – Alexandra Byrne

Watch out for: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Ann Roth

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MAKE UP & HAIR

• THE DIG – Jenny Shircore
• HILLBILLY ELEGY – Patricia Dehaney, Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Matiki Anoff, Larry M. Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal
• MANK – Colleen LaBaff, Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams
• PINOCCHIO – Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier, Francesco Pegoretti

Predicted winner: PINOCCHIO – Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier, Francesco Pegoretti

Watch out for: MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Matiki Anoff, Larry M. Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal

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SOUND

• GREYHOUND – Beau Borders, Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler, Warren Shaw, David Wyman
• NEWS OF THE WORLD – Michael Fentum, William Miller, Mike Prestwood Smith, John Pritchett, Oliver Tarney
• NOMADLAND – Sergio Diaz, Zach Seivers, M. Wolf Snyder
• SOUL – Coya Elliott, Ren Klyce, David Parker
• SOUND OF METAL – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Phillip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, Michelle Couttolenc

Predicted winner: SOUND OF METAL – Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Phillip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, Michelle Couttolenc

Watch out for: SOUL – Coya Elliott, Ren Klyce, David Parker

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SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

• GREYHOUND – Pete Bebb, Nathan McGuinness, Sebastian von Overheidt, Whitney Richman
• THE MIDNIGHT SKY – Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Max Solomon, David Watkins
• MULAN – Sean Faden, Steve Ingram, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury
• THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN – Santiago Colomo Martinez, Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones
• TENET – Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley

Predicted winner: TENET – Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley

Watch out for: THE MIDNIGHT SKY – Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Max Solomon, David Watkins

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BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

• THE FIRE NEXT TIME – Renaldho Pelle, Yanling Wang, Kerry Jade Kolbe
• THE OWL AND THE PUSSYCAT – Mole Hill, Laura Duncalf
• THE SONG OF A LOST BOY – Daniel Quirke, Jamie MacDonald, Brid Arnstein

Predicted winner: THE SONG OF A LOST BOY – Daniel Quirke, Jamie MacDonald, Brid Arnstein

Watch out for: THE FIRE NEXT TIME – Renaldho Pelle, Yanling Wang, Kerry Jade Kolbe

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BRITISH SHORT FILM

• EYELASH – Jesse Lewis Reece, Ike Newman
• LIZARD – Akinola Davies, Rachel Dargavel, Wale Davies
• LUCKY BREAK – John Addis, Rami Sarras Pantoja
• MISS CURVY – Ghada Eldemellawy
• THE PRESENT – Farah Nabulsi

Predicted winner: THE PRESENT – Farah Nabulsi

Watch out for: LUCKY BREAK – John Addis, Rami Sarras Pantoja

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EE RISING STAR AWARD

• BUKKY BAKRAY
• CONRAD KHAN
• KINGSLEY BEN-ADIR
• MORFYDD CLARK
• ṢỌPẸ DÌRÍSÙ

Predicted winner: KINGSLEY BEN-ADIR

Watch out for: CONRAD KHAN

Photo credit: Thomas Alexander