2021 National Board of Review (NBR) predictions

The Gothams kicked off critics’ season with their winners on Monday but the National Board of Review is generally regarded as the first top org to knock out awards, when they’re not battling the New York Film Critics Circle for ‘first’ honors.

The group, originally slated to reveal their winners on November 30, pushed back their announcement to December 2 (a day before NYFCC) to accommodate the very last-minute screenings of December titles like West Side Story and Nightmare Alley. Will we see either of those pop up the way The Post did a few years ago? And will the group’s (in)famous connection to Warner Bros, Clint Eastwood (Cry Macho) and George Clooney (The Tender Bar) factor in this year?

The National Board of Review also gives out special honors each year, although they aren’t always the same every year. In looking at the likely contenders for the Spotlight Award I’m going with Lin-Manuel Miranda for both In the Heights earlier this year and his feature directorial debut tick, tick… BOOM! The Freedom of Expression Award seems like a perfect fit for Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s LGBTQ, animated refugee documentary Flee.

The ins and out of what the NBR will put in their ‘top Independent Films’ and ‘Top 5 Foreign Films’ vs what they’ll allow in the ‘Best Film’ and ‘Top Ten Films’ sections is open to interpretation. Something like Mass could end up as a top ten film or be relegated to independent. I think we could see some very small films like Paper Spiders, Test Pattern, Shiva Baby and Wild Indian there. In previous years, Parasite was relegated to foreign film only.

Here are my predictions for the 2021 National Board of Review awards. Winners will be announced on December 2.

Best Film
Prediction: The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Spoiler: Belfast (Focus Features)

Top Ten Films
Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Belfast (Focus Features)
C’mon C’mon (A24)
CODA (Apple Original Films)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Dune (Warner Bros)
King Richard (Warner Bros)
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

Best Director
Prediction: Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Spoiler: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Best Actor
Prediction: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Spoiler: Will Smith – King Richard

Best Actress
Prediction: Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Spoiler: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Spoiler: Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Ann Dowd – Mass
Spoiler: Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Breakthrough Performance
Prediction: Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Spoiler: Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon

Ensemble Cast
Prediction: Don’t Look Up
Spoiler: House of Gucci

Directorial Debut
Prediction: Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Spoiler: Rebecca Hall – Passing

Original Screenplay
Prediction: Licorice Pizza
Spoiler: Being the Ricardos

Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: The Power of the Dog
Spoiler: The Lost Daughter

Foreign Language Film
Prediction: The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Spoiler: A Hero (Iran)

Documentary
Prediction: Summer of Soul
Spoiler: Flee

Animated Feature
Prediction: Encanto
Spoiler: Flee

Spotlight Award: Lin-Manuel Miranda

Freedom of Expression Award: Flee