2021 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (January)

The smallest of moves in the top 10 this month, but an important one, with One Night in Miami and The Father switching spots. The Father continues to underperform across the board critically as One Night in Miami rises, including the USC Scripter awards, which went for Bad Education – a film with no Oscar eligibility – over The Father.

The National Board of Review screenplay win for News of the World was a surprise and a shot in the arm but it still sits just outside the top 5 for me. I’m not going to dismiss First Cow and that NYFCC Best Film stat: no film in the history of the NYFCC has won Best Film and then gotten zero Oscar nominations.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for January.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

3. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” by Iain Reid)

8. Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on characters created by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips)

9. Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber (based on the play “Pieces of a Woman”)

10. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga)

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Other Contenders (alphabetical)
Cherry (Apple TV+)
Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on “Cherry” by Nico Walker)

French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt (based on the novel “French Exit” by Patrick deWitt)

Emma. (Focus Features)
Eleanor Catton (based on the book “Emma” by Jane Austen)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel “Hillbilly Elegy” by J.D. Vance)

The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Michael Bronner (based on the novel “Guantanamo Diary” by Mohamedou Ould Salahi)

The Mauritanian (STX Entertainment)
Mark L. Smith (based on the novel “Good Morning, Midnight” by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on “David Copperfield” by Charles Dickens)

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Suzan-Lori Parks (based on “Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs” by Johann Hari)