2021 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (November)

It may only be November but this is a category that feels…dare I say, almost locked? There’s certainly some room, especially for that 5th spot, but I would be shocked to not see Nomadland, One Night in Miami…, The Father and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom announced on Oscar nomination morning. I won’t use the ‘L’ word just yet, but it’s close.

But it is that 5th spot that could provide some suspense. I’m sticking with News of the World for now but Borat (a sequel to a previous nominee) and I’m Thinking of Ending Things (a return for Oscar winner Charlie Kaufman) are right outside its door. There’s also Pieces of a Woman, based on the play and personal experience of director Kornél Mundruczó and Kata Wéber. But with three play adaptations already in the top 5, is there room for another?

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for November.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

6. Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Swimer (based on characters created by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Charlie Kaufman (based on the novel “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” by Iain Reid)

8. Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
Kata Wéber (based on the play “Pieces of a Woman”)

9. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

10. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel “The White Tiger” by Aravind Adiga)

Other Contenders (alphabetical)

Cherry (Apple TV+)
Angela Otstot, Jessica Goldberg (based on “Cherry” by Nico Walker)

French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Patrick deWitt (based on the novel “French Exit” by Patrick deWitt)

Emma. (Focus Features)
Eleanor Catton (based on the book “Emma” by Jane Austen)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Vanessa Taylor (based on the novel “Hillbilly Elegy” by J.D. Vance)

The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Michael Bronner (based on the novel “Guantanamo Diary” by Mohamedou Ould Salahi)

The Mauritanian (STX Entertainment)
Mark L. Smith (based on the novel “Good Morning, Midnight” by Lily Brooks-Dalton)

The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci (based on “David Copperfield” by Charles Dickens)

The Prom (Netflix)
Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin (based on the musical “The Prom” by Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin and Matthew Sklar)

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Suzan-Lori Parks (based on “Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs” by Johann Hari)