2021 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (February)

Just how much did the Golden Globes throw a wrench into the Best Picture race? In one sense, a lot. Despite nominating three women in Best Director for the first time ever, the group of ~90 international journalists based in Hollywood ignored every Black-led film in their Best Motion Picture categories. No Da 5 Bloods, No Judas and the Black Messiah, no Ma Rainey, no One Night in Miami (even while nominating Regina King for directing. Da 5 Bloods was snubbed entirely.

The biggest outlier in the Globes’ Motion Picture – Drama nominees for me is probably The Father. While Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman are surefire likely Oscar nominees, the nomination here feels a little bit like The Two Popes last year, Hopkins inclusion in both notwithstanding. Obviously the film did well with the BAFTA longlists and probably will with actual nominations, but it’s a lower tier Oscar contender for me right now but lord knows I could be wrong here. It’s a player in film editing and adapted screenplay too but I see it as either getting those four only or just sneaking into BP to make it five.

Speaking of Da 5 Bloods, its ride so far has been like a roller coaster. A summer release, it bounced back with critics in a big way with Delroy Lindo winning NYFCC and the film and Spike Lee winning NBR. Then that Globe shutout. Then it came roaring back the very next day with SAG nominations for the cast and Chadwick Boseman in supporting. But Lindo was out. Then Critics’ Choice (BFCA) gave it love, as did the BAFTA longlists (but not Lee). The Academy finally gave Lee his due with 2018’s BlacKkKlansman, with Best Picture and Director nominations and an Adapted Screenplay win but was it one and done or will BAFTA revive it once again right as the real Oscar race is in the heat of things?

I’ve seen some pundits toying with Mank getting snubbed in Best Picture, which feels like a wild NGNG choice. The film definitely deflated a bit with critics’ awards and nominations, sometimes failing to even earn the latter from several groups and then at SAG, missing a cast nomination as well as one for Amanda Seyfried. So, I get where they’re coming from, taking in a lot from those SAG snubs. But I think it’s safe.

The case for Judas and the Black Messiah is an interesting one. It’s pretty clear that had Warner Bros not been toiling over its revolutionary release schedule and dropped Judas earlier, like November or even December, the film would have been a much bigger critics’ player. Only now are we seeing the strength of Daniel Kaluuya’s potential in supporting actor, where he probably could have run critics’ season. It managed only Kaluuya (and Song) at the Globes and SAG and although it did well with the BAFTA longlists, it missed Best Film there. It even had a low showing at Critics’ Choice, with just four nominations and not one for Best Picture. The Producers Guild feels like the last hope and certainly an attainable one.

One other oddity this season that has really stuck out for me was Minari also missing the BAFTA longlist for Best Film while Lee Isaac Chung still made it in director and four performances in all four categories made the longlist cut as well. It’s a bizarre and glaring oversight almost on par with the Golden Globes limiting the film to its Foreign Language Film category, which is where, incidentally, Minari also ended up with BAFTA.

Finally, what to do with Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow? The NYFCC Best Film winner should be Reichardt’s Oscar introduction but what path does it have? It’s going to struggle to get an Adapted Screenplay nomination and if it doesn’t even get that it will become the first NYFCC Best Film winner in history to earn zero Oscar nominations.

Ok, finally finally, am I underestimating Sound of Metal here? And is The White Tiger lurking and ready to pounce?

These are the last monthly predictions before FINAL Oscar predictions, which will arrive the second week of March.

The Golden Globe Awards are February 28, Critics’ Choice Awards are March 7, Producers Guild nominations come out March 8, BAFTA nominations are March 9, Oscar nominations drop March 15.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for February.

Green – moves up ↑; Red – moves down ↓; Blue – new entry this month +; Black – no change ↔

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↔ (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

2. Nomadland ↔ (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

3. Minari ↑ (A24) – GG (foreign film), SAG, BAFTA longlist (film not in the English language), BFCA
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

4. Promising Young Woman ↑ (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

5. Mank ↔ (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

6. One Night in Miami… ↑ (Amazon Studios) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom ↓ (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

8. News of the World ↓ (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah ↔ (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

10. Da 5 Bloods ↓ (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

Other Contenders

Another Round ↔ (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)
Kasper Dissing, Sisse Graum Jørgensen (producers)

The Father ↔ (Sony Pictures Classics) GG, BAFTA longlist
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

First Cow ↔ (A24)
Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly (producers)

Hillbilly Elegy ↔ (Netflix)

Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani (producers)

Never Rarely Sometimes Always ↔ (Focus Features)
Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy (producers)

Sound of Metal ↔ (Amazon Studios)
Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Cathy Benz (producers)

Soul ↔ (Pixar)
Dana Murray (producer)

Tenet ↔ (Warner Bros)

Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas (producers)

The White Tiger + (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani, Mukul Deora (producers)

Photo courtesy of Warner Bros Entertainment