2021 Oscar Predictions: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (December)

One of the contentious of the major categories, Original Screenplay is so full of exciting, bracing content it’s practically bursting at the seams.

I’ve begun to cool on Mank being an easy win here, it certainly was on paper. The Trial of the Chicago 7 feels like it could gain the momentum needed in the new year. Da 5 Bloods came out in June but it’s been going gangbusters with critics, where actors Delroy Lindo and Chadwick Boseman have both won awards. Can Netflix get them all in?

But I’m much more interested in the state of this race with regards to incredible and indelible work from female screenwriters directing their own work. With Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell has begun to pick up screenplay and first-time director wins for her thrilling dark comedy revenge story, the likes of which we only see in movies starring men. Eliza Hittman has three screenplay critics’ wins, including NYFCC, for her intense crossing state lines abortion drama Never Rarely Sometimes Always. They’re both from Focus Features. Then there’s the breakthrough of Radha Blank. Her hilarious life imitates art imitates film about a woman trying to break through by 40, The Forty-Year Old Version, grabbed the NYFCC and LAFCA prizes for first feature. She’ll probably need to land a few critics’ mentions before we go into guild and industry season but she’s right up there. I’m also not counting out Gotham nominee Channing Godfrey Peoples (Miss Juneteenth) or Deborah Eisenberg (Let Them All Talk) to potentially get some traction.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for December.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

3. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

6. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

7. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

8. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)

10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank

Other Contenders (alphabetical)

Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee

The Assistant (Bleecker Street)
Kitty Green

I’m Your Woman (Amazon Studios)
Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz

Kajillionaire (Focus Features)
Miranda July

Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
Deborah Eisenberg

Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Sam Levinson

Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Channing Godfrey Peoples

The Nest (IFC Films)
Sean Durkin

On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+)
Sofia Coppola

Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
Andy Siara

Supernova (Bleecker Street)
Harry Mcqueen

Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon)
Jericca Cleland, Will Collins, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart

Never Rarely Sometimes Always image courtesy of Focus Features