2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December)

An open category if there ever was one, Supporting Actor is proving to be one of the most difficult, and one of the most interesting, categories to predict.

The five critics groups last week spread their accolades across four actors: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods (NYFCC), Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami (IFJA), Paul Raci for Sound of Metal (BSFC, BOFCA) and Glynn Turman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (LAFCA).

It’s a big boost for Raci, although he could have used a NY or LA win, and he enters the top 10 this month. Boseman was already nearing lock status here now he’s virtually got it, especially since he’s earning these wins and mentions for Da 5 Bloods on its own and not coupled with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. His co-star in that film, Glynn Turman, was a surprise winner at LA this weekend and bolts into the top 10 like Raci has.

Yet with all of that I have Daniel Kaluuya at #1 for a film that still has no release date (Judas and the Black Messiah) and is embroiled in Warner Bros’ controversial decision to put all of its 2021 content on HBO Max day and date with its theatrical release. Still, the word of mouth about his performance has been so strong, with some calling it “electrifying” and so he holds court this month.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 guys haven’t made so much as a peep this critics season, not even as an ensemble. Odd. But I do thin that once industry votes start we’ll see them pop up and Sacha Baron Cohen remains the top contender there.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for December.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

6. David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

7. Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

8. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) 

9. Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

10. Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)

Other Contenders: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix), Brian Dennehy – Driveways (FilmRise), Colman Domingo – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century), Aldis Hodge – One Night in Miami… (Amazon), Arliss Howard – Mank (Netflix), Michael Keaton – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Alan Kim – Minari (A24), Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Jonathan Majors – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix), Bill Murray – On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+), Will Patton – Minari (A24), Tom Pelphrey – Mank (Netflix), Clarke Peters – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix), Jesse Plemons – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

Image of Paul Raci courtesy of Amazon Studios