2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

Major category placements came in between last and this month for The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, One Night in Miami…, Supernova and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that has shaken up the supporting actor chart for November.

Although I debuted Chadwick Boseman in the top spot last month (for Da 5 Bloods), it’s his lead role and performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that’s going to push him to posthumous Oscar glory. Still, getting a double nomination and definitely within his grasp and he’d be the first male actor to achieve that since Jamie Foxx, who was nominated in supporting for 2004’s Collateral and won in lead for Ray. Before that it was Al Pacino in 1992, who also won for his lead nomination.

The Chicago 7 guys, other than Sacha Baron Cohen, move around a lot, including Mark Rylance re-entering the top 5. Variety reported that Judas and the Black Messiah had been submitted for Screen Actors Guild consideration and if that’s true, it’s a contender. What we still don’t know is the category placement for Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield. It could go either way where the POV character (Stanfield) goes supporting while the high-profile ‘villain’ takes the lead (like Training Day and The Last King of Scotland).

Bill Murray (On the Rocks) is someone I’m not nearly as high on him as other pundits’ seem to be. Maybe I’m wrong here. I know Apple will push hard but there’s not much there. We’ll see once the real campaigns start. Stanley Tucci, a co-lead in Supernova, will go supporting and moves into the top 10.

The two big moves/changes this month though go to Colman Domingo debuting at #10 for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Although early word was that Glynn Turman would seem the more likely supporting contender, it’s Domingo who really shines in the film. Leslie Odom, Jr. will be the biggest beneficiary of the category split for the One Night in Miami… guys. With Kingsley Ben-Adir and Eli Goree going lead, that not only opens the door for an Odom nomination, but a win. With a Tony and a Grammy in hand, an Oscar win that would put him just one step from EGOT.

Shia Labeouf (Pieces of a Woman) and Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) debut on the Other Contenders list, both of whom could climb their way up the mountain of Netflix actors, including two Mank starters, Arliss Howard and Tom Pelphrey.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for November.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

4. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

5. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

6. Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)

7. Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

9. David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Colman Domingo – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

Other Contenders: Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix), Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century), Aldis Hodge – One Night in Miami… (Amazon), Arliss Howard – Mank (Netflix), Michael Keaton – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Alan Kim – Minari (A24), Shia LaBeouf – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix), Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix), Jonathan Majors – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix), Bill Murray – On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+), Will Patton – Minari (A24), Tom Pelphrey – Mank (Netflix), Clarke Peters – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix), Jesse Plemons –Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros), Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios), Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)