2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (November)

Aw, nerts! We’ve got a new #1 this month and it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank. We’ve had a few films feature early silver screen star Marion Davies before but this is the first time she’s been put in the Oscar spotlight and Seyfried’s buoyant performance is just the kind to tickle the fancy of even the most fickle Academy voter.

Olivia Colman (now officially slated as supporting for The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) both rise and claim the #2 and #3 spots while doting grandmother Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) holds on at #4.

However, it’s former frontrunner Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) who takes a big tumble this month; dropping from the top spot to barely hanging on at #5. The reviews for the film have been savage although the general filmgoer response has been considerably better (it debuted on Netflix November 24) and both agree that Close is a standout who comes out mostly unscathed. Still, even though we’ve had Oscar winners come from low-rated films before (hello, Rami Malek), it’s gonna be Close but no cigar.

Maria Bakalova, from Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, makes the month’s sole debut as Amazon Studios wisely chooses to place her here in supporting despite being a true co-lead of the film. She’ll need a lot of support to work her way into the top 5 (like a Golden Globe nomination, some critics’ notices) but it’s entirely possible for a performance that not only introduced the world to a new talent but shook politics in an already volatile election year.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for November.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

6. Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)

7. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (Neon)

8. Maria Bakalova – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)

9. Charlene Swankie – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Lesley Manville – Let Him Go (Focus Features)

Other Contenders: Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios), Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Entertainment), Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros), Priyanka Chopra Jones – The White Tiger (Netflix), Nicole Kidman – The Prom (Netflix), Natasha Lyonne – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount), Valerie Mahaffey – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics), Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures), Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features), Marisa Tomei – The King of Staten Island (Universal Pictures), Olivia Williams – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics), Debra Winger – Kajillionaire (Focus Features)