2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (October)

After the drama of the male acting categories yesterday it’s almost a relief to see that supporting actress is feeling…secure? Unless Olivia Colman goes lead for The Father (should could, she shouldn’t but she could) the top three here seems almost immovable even if the individual parts change up a bit. And they do this month as Amanda Seyfried (Mank) lands at #2. Glenn Close stays atop with Hillbilly Elegy.

Elsewhere, Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) climbs another spot after the huge audience response to her and the film at the fall festivals that just wrapped, and off on the shoulders of the terrible snub of Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell last year. Helena Zengel (News of the World) also moves up, entering the top 5. With a new, full trailer for her film dropping this morning and looking very much like a Hailee Steinfeld co-lead pushed supporting role, Zengel looks prime for a spot.

That pushes Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) out of the top 5 while the rest of last month’s top 10 holds solid. Scene stealer Valerie Mahaffey (French Exit) enters the chart for the first time.

The first teaser for The Prom dropped today and while it will likely be a big Golden Globe and SAG ensemble hit, I’m not feeling it for the Oscars. I have both Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman here but chances are that Streep graduates to lead as Streep often does.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for October.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
2. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)
5. Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
6. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (Neon)
7. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
8. Audra McDonald – Respect (MGM/UA)
9. Charlene Swankie – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Lesley Manville – Let Him Go (Focus Features)

Other Contenders: Mary J. Blige – Respect (MGM/UA), Priyanka Chopra – The White Tiger (Netflix), Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros), Nicole Kidman – The Prom (Netflix), Natasha Lyonne – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount), Valerie Mahaffey – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics), Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features), Meryl Streep – The Prom (Netflix), Marisa Tomei – The King of Staten Island (Universal Pictures), Olivia Williams – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics), Debra Winger – Kajillionaire (Focus Features)