On Tuesday, February 9 the Academy will release this year’s shortlists for Oscar consideration in nine categories: Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, International Feature Film, Documentary Feature and the Shorts: Animated, Documentary Short Subject and Live Action.
The Shorts, Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling will be comprised of 10 contenders moving on to the Oscar race, while the rest will have 15. Different this year is International Feature Film as the Board of Governors announced just weeks ago that they were eliminating the executive committee that selects three films after the general committee chooses their seven to compete. There will now be a straight 15 films from the general committee only.
As always, you can expect some big snubs and surprises and a few things that make perfect sense in hindsight. One thing these shortlists can do is show us what films may have an upperhand across the board if they have branch support in an unexpected category. Promising Young Woman showing up in Makeup and Hairstyling, for example, would show a broad support for the film. In the same category is where we’ll see a film (or films) that haven’t been in the conversation yet, usually a non-English language film that grabbed the attention of the branch. Visual Effects should be really interesting with the majority of studio tent-pole blockbusters pulling up their stakes and moving to later in 2021. Expect films with ‘supporting’ VFX to potentially do well. Not sure how Birds of Prey is going to play out here and in Makeup and Hairstyling since Warner Bros strangely decided to not even include the film on their FYC page.
With Jared Leto making a very late-breaking attempt to crash the Oscars with those Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations (but no BAFTA longlist) you can bet that Thomas Newman’s score for The Little Things will be on the shortlist. With his score for Let Them All Talk not qualifying, this is where the music branch can check off the 15-time Oscar nominee. Speaking of multi-nominees, 11-timer Diane Warren can probably get two original songs on the shortlist but can she pull of three?
Here are my Oscar shortlist predictions for seven categories in alphabetical order for Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film.
Original Score (15) – 136 qualified
Watch out for: The Glorias, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984
Original Song (15) – 105 qualified
Watch out for: “Loyal Brave True” from Mulan, “The Plan” from Tenet, “Staring at the Mountain” from Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Makeup and Hairstyling (10)
Watch out for: Birds of Prey, Jallikattu, The Prom
Visual Effects (10)
Watch out for: Birds of Prey, Greenland, Over the Moon
International Feature Film (15)
Watch out for: Atlantis (Ukraine), My Little Sister (Switzerland), Preparations to be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
Documentary Feature (15)
Watch out for: Athlete A, Notturno, The Painter and the Thief
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