2022 Emmy Predictions: Does Julia Garner have the Supporting Actress in a Drama Series race locked up?

The time has come: the 2022 Emmy nominations have been announced and networks are now in the process of submitting episodes for consideration for the performance and series categories. It’s already August, which means that nearly all performers (minus one in Comedy Supporting Actress) have submitted an episode for consideration. One such category with all performers submitted is Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, which has eight nominees. 

There are eight actresses vying for the prize and they’ve all chosen one episode each to represent their performance. Perennial frontrunner (and two-time winner) Julia Garner from Ozark could have chosen any episode of the final season to showcase her talent and range, but has chosen the finale of part 1 of the final season, “Sanctified,” which contains the much-memed moment of her character screaming at Marty and Wendy Byrde (fellow nominees Jason Bateman and Laura Linney). The ladies from Succession are right behind Garner, with Sarah Snook submitting the penultimate episode of season three, “Chiantishire,” while J. Smith Cameron has submitted episode three of season three, “The Disruption” – an episode that can be remembered solely by being reminded of the FBI raid at the end. Snook’s episode garnered a lot of praise, being one of the episodes set in Italy, where Shiv realizes she’s turning into her mother. First time nominee (having gained two noms this year) Sydney Sweeney is nominated for Euphoria after giving a much-discussed performance in the HBO drama’s sophomore outing. Unsurprising to any fan of the show, Sweeney has submitted episode three of that season, where her character Cassie has a complete meltdown in the bathroom, another meme-filled moment this season.

Another first-time nominee, Rhea Seehorn from Better Call Saul, has submitted the fourth episode of the final season of her show which also serves as the sole episode of the series that she directed. Christina Ricci has chosen the finale of Yellowjackets as her episodic submission, though most episodes would have served her well in this lineup. Patricia Arquette has submitted the penultimate episode of the premiere season of Severance, the episode where her character is fired from her job. Jung Ho-yeon provides one of the best submissions of the bunch by submitting episode six of Squid Game’s first season, “Gganbu,” an emotional episode that provides her character’s backstory as the characters toss marbles into a circle. 

As of right now, it seems that Julia Garner has the upper hand going into the ceremony. Even being more than a month away, it would be a shock if any of these other actresses were able to beat her, no matter how good they are. Garner is great in her series and it was the final season of the show. Sarah Snook is a close second, with Succession getting 14 acting nominations for its third season, showing the sheer power of the show.

Here are my predictions for the winner of Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.

1. Julia Garner – Ozark (Netflix) – “Sanctified”
2. Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO) – “Chiantishire”
3. Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game (Netflix) – “Gganbu”
4. Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets (Showtime) – “Sic Transit Gloria Mundi”
5. Patricia Arquette – Severance (AppleTV+) – “What’s For Dinner?”
6. Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria (HBO) – “Ruminations: Big and Little Bullys”
7. J. Smith Cameron – Succession (HBO) – “The Disruption”
8. Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul (AMC) – “Hit and Run”