2022 Oscar Predictions: BELOW THE LINE CATEGORIES (October)
Normally I’d have already begun my below the line predictions in the below-the-line/technical and feature categories but I’ve taken it a bit slower this season, which is still going to be a long one. Only one month shorter than last, which still feels like it just ended. For October you get 11 below the line predictions in one place but look for separate pieces from November on.
Oscar shortlists in several categories will be announced on December 21: Original Score and Song, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hairstyling, Documentary Feature, International Feature Film (which now has 15 slots like other shortlists, up from 10) and the three short categories. With those always come major snubs and surprise inclusions that may have only previously been in our periphery. Or, if you’re a shrewd predictor, you’ve been there all along.
I’m holding off on International Feature Film predictions for now as country selection can be even more esoteric than the IFF branch’s choices. For example, just today Spain side-stepped Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers, starring Oscar winner Penélope Cruz, for Fernando León de Aranoa’s The Good Boss, starring…Cruz’s husband, Oscar winner Javier Bardem. We only have 20 official submissions as of this writing, and that’s not nearly enough to properly compile a likely list when the yearly average hovers around 90. For example, France’s selection is one of great anticipation. Not only because of the country’s history with Oscars (although not so much recently) but all signs point to either Cannes Palme d’Or winner Titane (NEON) from Julia Ducournau, Venice Golden Lion winner Happening (IFC Films) from Audrey Diwan or Petite Maman (NEON) from Celine Sciamma, who some see would be a nice makeup after not choosing her Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
The technical categories this year, especially in places like visual effects and makeup, look like they’ll be populated by some big studio heavy hitters as they usually are and what was missing from last season’s Academy Awards, which were a significantly more modestly budgeted since so many studios sat out the year and pushed their tentpoles to 2021. Denis Villeneuve’s Dune is far and away the biggest of those titles, being held off a full year and now having premiered at Venice and Toronto before landing in U.S. theaters and homes via HBO Max on October 22. Also from WB/HBO is the long-awaited and hotly anticipated fourth Matrix film, The Matrix Resurrections. While the first film was an Oscar gangbuster, winning four Academy Awards, the two subsequent sequels were not so fortunate, with neither even garnering a single nomination. Hype is high for this one, a solo venture for Lana Wachowski for the first time, but it does look like it could make an impact. We’ll also have Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley, starring Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara and Toni Collette, his follow-up to his Oscar-winning The Shape of Water from 2017. Jane Campion returns after a 12-year absence from feature films with her huge festival hit The Power of the Dog, starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee.
Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.
FILM EDITING
1. Dune – Joe Walker (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Belfast – Úna Ni Dhonghaile (Focus Features)
3. King Richard – Pamela Martin (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
4. The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras (Netflix)
5. Nightmare Alley – Cam McLauchlin (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin (Netflix)
7. The Matrix Resurrections – Joseph Jett Sally (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
8. West Side Story – Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn (20th Century Studios)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (as Reginald Jaynes), Lucian Johnston (A24/Apple)
10. Flee – Janus Billeskov Jansen (NEON)
Other contenders:
CODA – Geraud Brisson (Apple)
Eternals – Dylan Tichenor and Craig Wood (Walt Disney/Marvel)
Flee – Janus Billeskov Jansen (NEON)
House of Gucci – Claire Simpson (MGM/UA)
Licorice Pizza – Andy Jurgensen (MGM/UA)
Spencer – Sebastián Sepúlveda (NEON)
tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum (Netflix)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Dune – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner (Netflix)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel (A24/Apple)
4. Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos (Focus Features)
5. Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Spencer – Claire Mathon (NEON)
7. West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski (20th Century Studios)
8. C’mon C’mon – Robbie Ryan (A24)
9. Licorice Pizza – Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UA)
10. Parallel Mothers – José Luis Alcaine (Sony Pictures Classics)
Other contenders:
Being the Ricardos – Jeff Cronenweth (Amazon Studios)
Cyrano – Seamus McGarvey (MGM/UA)
Don’t Look Up – Linus Sandgren (Netflix)
The French Dispatch – Robert Yeoman (Searchlight Pictures)
House of Gucci – Dairusz Wolski (MGM/UA)
King Richard – Robert Elswit (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
The Matrix Resurrections – Danielle Massaccesi and John Toll (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
tick, tick…BOOM! – Alice Brooks (Netflix)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Dune – Patrice Vermotte, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (Searchlight Pictures)
3. The French Dispatch – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo (Searchlight Pictures)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh (A24/Apple)
5. The Last Duel – Arthur Max, Judy Farr (20th Century Studios)
6. West Side Story – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo (20th Century Studios)
7. The Power of the Dog – Grant Major, Amber Richards (Netflix)
8. Being the Ricardos – Jon Hutman, Ellen Brill (Amazon Studios)
9. House of Gucci – Arthur Max, Letizia Santucci (MGM/UA)
10. Belfast – Jim Clay, Claire Nia Richards (Focus Features)
Other contenders:
Cruella – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (Walt Disney)
Cyrano – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer (MGM/UA)
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain – Suzie Davies, Charlotte Dirickx (Amazon Studios)
Eternals – Eve Stewart, Clint Wallace, Pancho Chamorro (Walt Disney/Marvel)
Last Night in Soho – Victoria Allwood, Emily Norris, Judy Farr (Focus Features)
Licorice Pizza – Florencia Martin, Ryan Watson (MGM/UA)
The Matrix Resurrections – Hugh Bateup, Peter Walpole, Lisa Brennan, Barbara Munch (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Spencer – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Yesim Zolan (NEON)
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Dune – Jacqueline West (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Nightmare Alley – Luis Siqueira (Searchlight Pictures)
3. The French Dispatch – Milena Cananero (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Cruella – Jenny Beavan (Walt Disney)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Mary Zophres (A24/Apple)
6. Spencer – Jacqueline Durran (NEON)
7. House of Gucci – Janty Yates (MGM/UA)
8. West Side Story – Paul Tazewell (20th Century Studios)
9. Belfast – Charlotte Walter (Focus Features)
10. The Power of the Dog – Kirsty Cameron (Netflix)
Other contenders:
Being the Ricardos – Susan Lyall (Amazon Studios)
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini (MGM/UA)
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain – Michael O’Connor (Amazon Studios)
Eternals – Sammy Sheldon Differ (Walt Disney/Marvel)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Mitchell Travers (Searchlight Pictures)
The Green Knight – Malgosia Turzanska (A24)
The Last Duel – Janty Yates (20th Century Studios)
Licorice Pizza – Mark Bridges (MGM/UA)
The Matrix Resurrections – Lindsay Pugh (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
4. Cruella (Walt Disney)
5. The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
6. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
8. Spencer (NEON)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
10. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Other contenders:
Eternals (Walt Disney/Marvel)
7. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
The Last Duel (20th Century Studios)
Last Night in Soho (Focus Features) Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dune – Hans Zimmer (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. Spencer – Jonny Greenwood (NEON)
3. The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood (Netflix)
4. Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Nightmare Alley – Nathan Johnson (Searchlight Pictures) [Updated 10/7: Alexandre Desplat has been replaced as composter of the film]
6. The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell (Netflix)
8. No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer (MGM/UA)
9. Licorice Pizza – Jonny Greenwood (MGM/UA)
10. Belfast – Van Morrison (Focus Features)
Other contenders:
A Chiara – Benh Zeitlin and Dan Rohmer (NEON)
Cyrano, King Richard – Kris Bowers (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Eternals – Ramin Djawadi (Walt Disney/Marvel)
House of Gucci – Harry Gregson-Williams (MGM/UA)
The Last Duel – Harry Gregson-Williams (20th Century Studios)
Luca – Dan Rohmer (Walt Disney/Pixar)
The Matrix Resurrections – Jonny Klimek and Tim Tykwer (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell (A24/Apple)
MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. “Believe” from The Rescue (NatGeo)
5. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Vertical Entertainment)
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (Apple)
7. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features)
8. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (MGM/UA)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (Amazon Studios)
10. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect (MGM/UA)
Other contenders:
“At the Automat” from The Automat (TBA)
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (Universal Pictures)
“Call Me Cruella” from Cruella (Walt Disney)
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
“This Was Me” from Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (Amazon Studios)
“My Father’s Daughter” from Flag Day (MGM)
“Home All Summer” from In the Heights (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
“On My Way” from The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix)
“Never Gonna Tame You” from The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses (Virgil Films)
“Lead the Way” from Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney)
“Fire in the Sky” from Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel)
“Fearless” from Spirit: Untamed
“Keep That Beat” from Vivo (Netflix)
SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
3. The Last Duel (20th Century Studios)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
6. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
7. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)
8. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Belfast (Focus Features)
10. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Other contenders:
Cyrano (MGM/UA)
Eternals (Walt Disney/Marvel)
A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount Pictures)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
3. Eternals (Walt Disney/Marvel)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
5. Free Guy (20th Century Studios)
6. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
7. The Tomorrow War (Amazon Studios)
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures)
9. The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
10. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel)
Other contenders:
Black Widow (Walt Disney/Marvel)
Finch (Apple)
Jungle Cruise (Walt Disney)
No Time to Die (MGM/UA)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel)
Space Jam: A New Legacy (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
Swan Song (Apple)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony Pictures)
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix)
3. Encanto (Walt Disney)
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney)
5. Belle (GKIDS)
6. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar)
7. Vivo (Netflix)
8. Sing 2 (Universal Pictures)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (20th Century Studios)
10. The Summit of the Gods (Netflix)
Other contenders:
The Boss Baby: Family Business (Universal Pictures)
Charlotte (TBA)
Cryptozoo (Magnolia Pictures)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TBA)
Where is Anne Frank (TBA)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Flee (NEON)
2. The Rescue (NatGeo)
3. Julia (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Attica (Showtime)
6. President (TBA)
7. The Lost Leonardo (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Ailey (NEON)
9. Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (Screen Films Media/HBO Documentary Films)
10. Becoming Cousteau (Picturehouse)
Other contenders:
The First Wave (NEON/NatGeo)
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus Features)
Sparks Brothers (Focus Features)
The Velvet Underground (Apple)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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