2022 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (December)

Of the critics groups who have screenplay winners, the overwhelming favorite in adapted is The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion’s adaptation of the 1967 novel by Thomas Savage. With six wins plus two more from groups who combine adapted and original, it is still the one to beat and without a true challenger.

Drive My Car, from Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe makes a big move this month after what is already a fantastic showing for the Japanese film based on the short story by Haruki Murakami. The film won Boston’s combined screenplay category, is dominating International Feature wins and shocked by taking NYFCC’s Best Picture last week.

In original there’s little movement in a category that is incredibly competitive. Belfast and Licorice Pizza remain the top two contenders and the winner here will probably decide how Best Picture unfolds. This could either finally be the chance to reward Paul Thomas Anderson after eight Oscar losses or secure Belfast as the inevitable Best Picture winner.

We’ll have USC Scripter nominations on January 18, Writers Guild noms on January 27 and BAFTA on February 3 to give us more insight.

Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for December 2021.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) ↔
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) ↔
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) ↔
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Janus Films) ↑
5. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) ↑
6. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix) ↓
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (A24/Apple Original Films) ↓
8. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, Jon Spaiths (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↓
9. Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
10. The Last Duel – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Nicole Holofcener (20th Century Studios) ↔

Other contenders: Cyrano – Joe Wright (MGM/UAR, The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Abe Sylvia (Searchlight Pictures), The Green Knight – David Lowery (A24), House of Gucci – Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna (MGM/UAR), The Humans – Steven Karam ↓ (A24), The Tender Bar – William Monahan (Amazon Studios), tick, tick…Boom! – Steven Levenson (Netflix), Zola – Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris, A’Ziah King (A24)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) ↔
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) ↔
3. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) ↑
4. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) ↔
5. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios) ↑
6. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) ↓
7. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24) ↓
8. Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar (Sony Pictures Classics) ↔
9. The Hand of God – Paolo Sorrentino (Netflix) ↔
10. Mass – Franz Kranz (Bleecker Street)

Other contenders: Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen (NEON), The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson (Searchlight Pictures), Last Night in Soho – Edgar Wright (Focus Features), Red Rocket – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch (A24), Spencer – Steven Knight ↓ (NEON), Swan Song – Benjamin Cleary (Apple Original Films), Titane – Julia Ducournau, Jacques Akchoti, Simonetta Greggio (NEON), The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt (NEON)