2022 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November)

As I wrote in my October predictions for screenplays, Netflix could dominate the Adapted Screenplay race in a substantial way this year with Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter and Rebecca Hall’s Passing – all screenplays they adapted in films they directed. It would be a powerful and historical precedent for the Oscars as the category has never seen more than two women credited as writers among the five nominated films in a single year. 

The Lost Daughter and Passing led the Gotham Awards nominations (The Power of the Dog was ineligible) including nods for screenplay. But it’s not just Netflix that has strong women contenders here: Searchlight Pictures has Nightmare Alley co-written by Kim Morgan and Siân Heder adapted and directed CODA. We could have a season where all five nominees have a female writer behind them and I can’t stress enough how huge this precedent would be.

Original screenplay is a deep bench of previous winners and nominees, also from directors who wrote their own works. Academy Award winner Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) joins Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) with Being the Ricardos, his behind the scenes look at one tumultuous week in the life of television legends Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz. It’s one of his smartest and snappiest scripts, giving a wide berth to the process of writing itself as a main narrative plot point. Academy Award winner Adam McKay (The Big Short) is also set to crash this race with Don’t Look Up, his meteor heading towards Earth climate change satire with the starriest cast of the year that includes no less than five Oscar winners exercising their substantial comedic chops: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett and Mark Rylance. It’s a loaded category, that’s going to make it tough for a newcomer to break in.

Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for November 2021.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) ↔
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) ↔
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) ↑
4. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix) ↑
5. Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (A24/Apple Original Films) ↓
7. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, Jon Spaiths (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↔
8. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) ↑
9. The Humans – Steven Karam (A24) ↔
10. The Last Duel – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Nicole Holofcener (20th Century Studios) ↔

Other contenders: Cyrano – Joe Wright (MGM), Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe ♦ (Janus Films), The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Abe Sylvia (Searchlight Pictures), The Green Knight – David Lowery (A24), House of Gucci – Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna ↓ (MGM/UA), The Tender Bar – William Monahan (Amazon Studios), tick, tick…Boom! – Steven Levenson (Netflix), Zola – Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris, A’Ziah King (A24)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) ↔
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UA) ↔
3. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) ↑
4. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) ↑
5. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros) ↓
6. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24) ↓
7. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios) ↑
8. Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
9. The Hand of God – Paolo Sorrentino (Netflix) ↑
10. Spencer – Steven Knight (NEON) ↓

Other contenders: Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen (NEON), The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson ↓ (Searchlight Pictures), Last Night in Soho – Edgar Wright (Focus Features), Mass – Franz Kranz (Bleecker Street), Red Rocket – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch (A24), Swan Song – Benjamin Cleary (Apple Original Films), Titane – Julia Ducournau, Jacques Akchoti, Simonetta Greggio (NEON), The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt ↓ (NEON)

Photos: Niko Tavernise/Netflix; Apple