2022 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (September)

It’s taken a minute for me to jump into the screenplay categories for official Oscar predictions and it was mainly because the field in both Adapted and Original Screenplay has felt surprisingly slim.

But, as we’re at the end of September, we’ve been able to establish some very clear frontrunners now that we’re post-Telluride and post-TIFF. In both cases the top spot belongs to two films that made the TIFF People’s Choice Award top three, including the winner, Belfast from Kenneth Branagh, and the #3 pick The Power of the Dog from Jane Campion.

We finally have a title for the new Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza – and it bursts onto the new chart on the strength of the film’s first teaser, conversations I had at Telluride saying that it’s like a “romantic Boogie Nights” and of course, PTA’s history with the Academy. It’s an odd history, to be sure. Getting in for 2014’s Inherent Vice as its only nomination only to be snubbed for 2017’s Phantom Thread a few years later despite also earning only his second Best Director and Best Picture nominations for it. Make it make sense, Academy.

Even though also getting closer to all main contenders being seen, we still have several in the pipeline ready for hungry eyes and viewers. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple) hits NYFF on Friday the 24th, tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) gets its first look at AFI FEST in early November, House of Gucci (MGM/UA) will probably remain under wraps until closer to its release over Thanksgiving, as well as the aforementioned Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA). Then there’s the late December releases of Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios), The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios) and West Side Story (20th Century Studios) are among those that aren’t likely to pop up at a random festival ahead of their press screenings.

Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for September.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
3. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple)
5. The Humans (A24)
6. CODA (Apple)
7. Dune (Warner Bros)
8. House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
9. Passing (Netflix)
10. The Last Duel (20th Century Studios)

Other contenders: Cyrano (MGM), Eternals (Walt Disney), The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures), The Green Knight (A24), A Hero (Amazon Studios), The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios), tick, tick…Boom! (Netflix), The Unforgivable (Netflix), West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Zola (A24)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)
3. C’mon C’mon (A24)
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
5. King Richard (Warner Bros)
6. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. The Hand of God (Netflix)
8. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Spencer (NEON)
10. The Worst Person in the World (NEON)

Other contenders: Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios), Last Night in Soho (Focus Features), Mass (Bleecker Street), Petite Maman (NEON), Swan Song (Apple)