2022 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (December)

The shortlists for Documentary Feature and International Feature Film came with the usual surprise inclusions and shocking snubs but also more or less solidified what many of us felt were the frontrunners to begin with.

The current critics’ frontrunner for animated feature is Netflix’s The Mitchells vs. the Machines but curiously, it missed a Golden Globe nomination. While it might not seem important (and maybe this year it isn’t), we’ve never had an animated feature win the Oscar without being Globe-nominated first. We’ve only ever had one film win the Globe and then be snubbed for an Oscar nomination (2011’s The Adventures of Tintin). Remarkably, the Globes nominated the usual suspects: Encanto, Luca, Flee and Raya and the Last Dragon but the inclusion of the Afghan film My Sunny Maad is what raised eyebrows. The Mitchells made the cut at the Annie Awards nominations in the top category and also landed writing and directing nominations so it should be more than safe.

Doc contenders who have already performed well with various nonfiction guilds and/or critics groups like Ascension, Attica, Faya Dayi, Flee and Summer of Soul showed up but we also saw Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry make the cut over other star docs like The Sparks Brothers and Val. My top seven contenders from last month all made the shortlist and remain in the same position.

International Feature Film’s big shock on shortlist day was France’s Titane missing, opening up a space on the 15-film list that was already going to be Euro-centric once again. 10 of the 15 films come from Europe with six from other areas: Bhutan (Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom), Iran (A Hero), Japan (Drive My Car), Mexico (Prayers for the Stolen) and Panama (Plaza Catedral). No African countries are represented this year. There’s always room for surprises with final nominations, even now with all members of the Academy eligible to vote as long as they see all shortlisted films. Last season gave us Better Days from Hong Kong and The Man Who Sold His Skin from Tunisia, two films that weren’t widely predicted and had not hit the usual precursors first.

What will continue to be the biggest potential news on Oscar nomination morning is if Flee is able to make it into all three categories, something I’m predicting to happen. In Flee‘s favor is that it currently sits at #2 or #3 in the critics’ races for all three categories. Keeping itself in a safe place and out of the way of voters who might want to pump the brakes on a frontrunner (I’m looking at you, doc branch) only benefits the film on its way to making Oscar history.

Here are my 2022 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for December 2021.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Twenty-six features are eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film category for the 94th Academy Awards.  Some of the films have not yet had their required qualifying release and must fulfill that requirement and comply with all the category’s other qualifying rules to advance in the voting process.

To determine the five nominees, members of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch are automatically eligible to vote in the category.  Academy members outside of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch are invited to opt in to participate and must meet a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category.  Films submitted in the Animated Feature Film category also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories, including Best Picture.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie ↑
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA winner ↓
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie ↔
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie ↔
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie  ↑

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6. Belle (GKIDS) – Annie (indie) ↓
7. Sing 2 (Universal Pictures) – Annie ↔
8. The Summit of the Gods (Netflix) – Annie (Indie) ↔
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (20th Century Studios) ↔
10. Vivo (Netflix) ↔

Other contenders:
The Addams Family 2 (United Artists Releasing)
The Boss Baby: Family Business (Universal Pictures)
My Sunny Maad (Aerofilms)
Spirit Untamed (Dreamworks Animation)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fifteen films advanced in the Documentary Feature category for the 94th Academy Awards. 138 films were eligible in the category. Members of the Documentary Branch votes to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA winner ↔
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC ↔
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA ↔
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA ↔
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC ↔

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6. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures/Hulu) – CEH, CCA winner, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA ↔
7. Attica (Showtime Documentary Films) – CCA, DOC NYC ↔
8. The Velvet Underground (Apple Original Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC
9. President (Greenwich Entertainment) – Gotham
10. The First Wave (NEON/NatGeo) ↔
11. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (NEON/Apple TV+)
12. In the Same Breath (HBO Documentary Films)
13. Julia (Sony Pictures Classics) – DOC NYC
14. Simple as Water (HBO Documentary Films)
15. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films) – IDA, PGA

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Fifteen films advanced to the next round of voting in the International Feature Film category for the 94th Academy Awards. Films from 92 countries were eligible in the category. Academy members from all branches were invited to participate in the preliminary round of voting and must have met a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category. In the nominations round, Academy members from all branches are invited to opt in to participate and must view all 15 shortlisted films to vote.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA ↑
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA ↓
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA ↓
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA ↓
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) ↑

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6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) – EFA, GG ↔
7. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – CCA ↓
8. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
9. Belgium (Playground)
10. I’m Your Man (Germany) ↓
11. Great Freedom (Austria) ↑
12. Lamb (Iceland) ↓
13. Hive (Kosovo) ↓
14. Plaza Catedral (Panama)
15. The Good Boss (Spain)