2022 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (November)

Things are heating up as we are turning the bend with late breaking films finally starting to screen and few are as big as Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of West Side Story, based on the original book and 1957 musical. The film screened for press this week to rave reviews overall and highlighting the Oscar-winning director’s deft hold of the material, including small but important improvements by Tony Kushner over the 1961 film that won 10 Oscars. The Academy hasn’t been too kind to Spielberg in recent years, but this could be his triumphant return.

The word ‘crowdpleaser’ has been bandied about quite a bit this season, both as a positive and pejorative. Belfast (Focus Features), King Richard (Warner Bros) and now West Side Story (20th Century Studios) all seem to fall under that umbrella but why is there conversation momentum of it needing to happen? We know that Oscar seasons are always in their own bubble and represent everything that’s happening in a given year whether it’s political, social or anything in between. As we enter our 2nd Oscars under the cloud of COVID and we’ve begun to return to theaters with some real success stories (and definitely some not), I do wonder if the prevailing thought that 2021 is – or was hoping to be – the return of the studio film after a year of total indie takeover, is what’s driving it.

Netflix’s Don’t Look Up, the star-studded meteor movie from Adam McKay could be considered crowdpleasing territory but as a Netflix film we won’t be able to gauge it via box office like we can with more traditionally released films. But at its premieres in Los Angeles last week it was met with a rousing response. As of this writing, Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) will finally screen tomorrow night and while it’s not likely to fall under that feel good area, the circus noir also boasts a wickedly starry cast and Oscar-winning director.

Two other non-festival films, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza and Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci, landed in theaters over the Thanksgiving holiday as substantial box office successes. For Licorice Pizza, it’s 4-theater kick off resulted in the biggest PTA (per theater average) since 2019 for a limited release film and Gucci hit $22M for the holiday in what some called ‘the return of the adult drama.’ While the reviews for Pizza are significantly better and will result in more critics’ wins than Gucci but the latter’s cash haul could spell success down the line. Still one more, Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) premiered for press to great response too, boosting its cast and Sorkin’s script up Oscar charts. But will he and the film crack the top 10?

The Gotham Awards, while only decided on by a tiny handful of New York critics, went hard for Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter (Netflix) and is poised to be a potential Best Director and Best Picture pic with Gyllenhaal feeling secure as this year’s DGA choice for a First Time Feature win.

As we enter December, critics and industry awards and nominations will be flying at us fast and furious. This coming week will bring us the National Board of Review (who moved their date from today to December 2 to accommodate these late releases), the Hollywood Critics Association nominations (12/2), the New York Film Critics Circle (12/3), the British Independent Film Awards (12/5) as well as several regional groups announcing.

Fasten your seatbelts readers, it’s going to be a bumpy month.

Here are my ranked 2022 Best Director and Best Picture Oscar predictions for November 2021.

BEST DIRECTOR

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) ↔
2. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↔
4. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↔
5. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) ↑
6. Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↓
7. Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
8. Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) ↑
9. Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) ↓
10. Asghar Farhadi – A Hero (Amazon Studios) ↓

Other contenders: Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios), Siân Heder – CODA (Apple), Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Jonas Poher Rasmussen – Flee ↓ (NEON), Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God (Netflix), Ridley Scott – House of Gucci (MGM/UA), Ridley Scott – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios), Pedro Almodóvar – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics), Rebecca Hall – Passing (Netflix), Pablo Larraín – Spencer ↓ (NEON), Lin-Manuel Miranda – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix), Julia Ducourneau – Titane (NEON), Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World (NEON)

BEST PICTURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Belfast (Focus Features) [Telluride, TIFF] ↔
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) [Venice, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF, AFI] ↔
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) [Telluride, AFI] ↔
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) [Venice, TIFF, NYFF] ↔
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) ↑
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↓
7. Spencer (NEON) [Venice, Telluride, TIFF] ↓
8. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
9. The Lost Daughter (Netflix) [Venice, Telluride, NYFF] ↑
10. C’mon C’mon (A24) [Telluride, NYFF] ↑

Other contenders:

Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) ♦
CODA (Apple Original Films) [Sundance]
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Flee (NEON) [Sundance, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF] ↓
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures) [Cannes, Telluride, NYFF]
The Hand of God (Netflix) [Venice, Telluride]
A Hero (Amazon Studios) [Cannes, Telluride]
House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
The Last Duel (20th Century Studios) [Venice, TIFF]
Mass (Bleecker Street) [Sundance]
Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) [NYFF]
Passing (Netflix) [Sundance, NYFF]
tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) [AFI]
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) [NYFF] ↓
The Worst Person in the World (NEON) [Cannes, TIFF, NYFF, AFI]