2022 Oscar Predictions: INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (November)

With the deadline behind us, submissions for the International Feature Film Oscar are closed, putting us at 93 entries and tying with the all-time record years of 2019 and 2021, if there are no disqualified titles after the dust settles. Boy, I was really hoping for 94 submissions for the 94th Oscars though, right?

Without an overwhelming early frontrunner like Parasite or Another Round, this season is more open than usual and also much more competitive. Industry and critics awards will begin in earnest in the coming weeks but the European Film Awards nominations told us quite a lot, enough to alter the race as we might have seen it.

This year, the top nominees at EFA were The Father and Quo Vadis, Aida?, both Oscar winners and nominees last season so those won’t factor in this year. So we must look at the films that are official country submissions this year and where they stand and for some it was a huge boost but for others it was a potentially devastating snub.

France’s Titane, Italy’s The Hand of God and Finland’s Compartment No. 6 are all nominated for Best European Film, giving them a significant leg up over their Oscar competition this year. Titane‘s Julia Ducournau and The Hand of God’s Paolo Sorrentino are also nominated in Best European Director, solidifying their places even more. What does that mean for Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World, the submission for Norway? Pretty bad news, actually. You’d have to go back 20 years to find an Oscar winner that was snubbed at EFA for the top award despite being eligible (2001’s Nowhere in Africa). Trier and his star, Cannes Best Actress winner Renate Reinsve, did receive nominations for screenwriting and actress, respectively, both those top snubs are potentially devastating for the film’s chances to win the Oscar.

In previous years, top International Feature Film/Foreign Language Film contenders got their awards season kick off here with films like 2021’s Another Round and 2018’s Cold War vaulting them not only to frontrunner Oscar status but that early peek at their directors – Thomas Vinterberg and Paweł Pawlikowski, respectively – earning those surprising Best Director Academy Award nominations. That’s good news for Ducournau and Sorrentino, the latter already having helmed an Oscar winner in this category (2013’s The Great Beauty).

The European Film Awards will announce their winners on December 11 and the Golden Globes (in whatever format they present) announce their nominees in this category on December 13. Follow the 2021/2022 awards season calendar here.

Here are my 2022 Oscar predictions for International Feature Film for November 2021. I’m listing 15 films to account for the expanded IFF Oscar shortlist arriving on December 21.

1. The Hand of God (Italy)
2. A Hero (Iran)
3. Flee (Denmark)
4. Titane (France)
5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
7. Drive My Car (Japan)
8. I’m Your Man (Germany)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
10. Hive (Kosovo)
11. Lamb (Iceland)
12. Great Freedom (Austria)
13. Let There Be Morning (Israel)
14. Leave No Traces (Poland)
15. Unclenching Your Fists (Russia)

Photos courtesy of NEON; Gianni Fiorito/Netflix