2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (February)

A seemingly two-horse race is set for Supporting Actor between two polar opposite roles and performances.

The Power of the Dog‘s Kodi Smit-McPhee has been the (somewhat) surprising critics’ favorite this season, taking LAFCA and NYFCC among his astonishing 27 wins for his portrayal of the quiet and calculating Peter. At 25, he’s one of the youngest Supporting Actor nominees ever (after Ordinary People‘s 20-year old Timothy Hutton, The Sixth Sense‘s 11-year old Haley Joel Osment and Kramer vs. Kramer‘s 7-year old Justin Henry) and he’d be the second youngest winner ever (after Hutton). The cold and sometimes cruel nature of Smit-McPhee’s character is probably less important when thinking about if he can win or not, it’s more his age that could work against him. The Academy has shown consistent hesitance in awarding young actors (actresses don’t seem to have that problem) and if he’s to stumble, this would be the reason. He is one of only two contenders this season to earn all four precursors and has already won the Golden Globe.

The other contender who has hit everything, and the one that represents the other side of this Oscar coin is CODA‘s Troy Kotsur. A breakthrough performance if there ever was one (despite being a longtime working actor), Kotsur’s role and performance as the deaf father of a hearing daughter with big singing dreams has consistently been an audience favorite and he has the tear-jerking moment of the film, if not the year. He is the sentimental choice and comes just a year after the success of Sound of Metal, which began opening the door of deaf portrayals in film. Fun fact, Kotsur auditioned for the role that ultimately went to his good friend Paul Raci, who earned a Supporting Actor nomination for his performance. Kotsur is only the second deaf actor ever nominated for an Oscar, after his CODA co-star, who won Best Actress for 1986’s Children of a Lesser God. That’s a pretty good built-in narrative.

There doesn’t seem to be much room for an upset from the melange of Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) or Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), none of whom are SAG-nominated. That race, like the Oscar race, is squarely between our two top contenders.

Precursor Watch: SAG is on February 27, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA are March 13. Oscar winner voting is March 17-22.

Here are my ranked 2022 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for February.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA 
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA