2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)

Last month I put my chips in for Richard Jenkins in A24’s The Humans but I’ve changed my mind. I’m not feeling like The Humans is going to get the push it would need so I’ve moved everything over to Jenkins for his role in Nightmare Alley. It’s a risk as I’ve gone pretty heavy with Nightmare Alley so far this but we still don’t know where it will show up on the festival route.

With a Venice premiere and as the Centerpiece film of the New York Film Festival, Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog from Netflix makes the chances for Jesse Plemons to get his due. Consistently putting out stellar character work in film and television, in drama and comedy, this could be his big awards break. That he’s married to his co-star, Kirsten Dunst, also on the precipice of her first chance at awards glory, it makes the potential all the more sweet.

As mentioned in supporting actress, Bleecker Street has chosen to run all four of its actors for Mass in supporting for awards contention. While that might hurt Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton, it could actually help Jason Isaacs (sorry, Reed Birney). He was a potential, but fringe, contender in Best Actor and with the ‘biggest’ performance in the group, he could find himself moving up this list with a proper campaign and he makes his debut this month on the supporting actor chart.

It was announced yesterday that the Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass has been moved to 2022 by 20th Century Studios so John David Washington is off this list. That helps fellow 20th performer Adam Driver (The Last Duel) who moves up.

Jon Bernthal (King Richard), Robin de Jesus (tick, tick…BOOM!) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) also debut this month while Benicio Del Toro (The French Dispatch) and Richard Jenkins (The Humans) drop.

Here are my ranked Supporting Actor Oscar predictions for July 2021.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↑

2. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔

3. Bradley Cooper – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM/UA) ↔

4. Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↑
5. Adam Driver – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios) ↑
6. Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) ↔
7. Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
8. 
Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up (Netflix) ↑
9. 
Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleecker Street) ♦
10. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) ↔

Other contenders: David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Jon Bernthal – King Richard ♦(Warner Bros/HBO Max), Robin de Jesus – tick, tick…BOOM! ♦ (Netflix), Benicio Del Toro – The French Dispatch ↓ (Searchlight Pictures), Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features), Colin Firth – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics), Brendan Gleeson – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Cyrano (MGM), Richard Jenkins – The Humans ↓(A24), Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – category placement TBD, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall (Netflix), Rob Morgan – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros/HBO Max), Josh O’Connor – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics), Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog ♦ (Netflix), LaKeith Stanfield – The Harder They Fall (Netflix), David Strathairn – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Steven Yeun – The Humans (A24)

Image courtesy of 20th Century Studios