2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

For last week’s Frontrunner Friday I dropped Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) from my top spot after seeing the film and that his screen time is so limited it would make it hard for him to win, and that a nomination was even in danger.

“Oh and Bradley Cooper? Probably in the whole thing for about five minutes. If you’ve seen the trailer, you’ve seen 90% of his performance. My former #1 in supporting actor drops out of the top 5 completely, making that category completely up in the air,” were my exact words but now… I kind of think it can actually happen. It’s probably closer to 7-8 minutes with two and a half scenes total in the film but several actors have gotten in with less than 10 minutes of screen time.

• 1936: Basil Rathbone (Romeo and Juliet), 6:16
• 1942: Henry Travers (Mrs. Miniver), 8:50
• 1954: Tom Tully (The Caine Mutiny), 9:49
• 1964: John Gielgud (Becket), 8:07
• 1970: John Marley (Love Story), 6:03
• 1976: Ned Beatty (Network), 6:00
• 1977: Maximilian Schell (Julia), 6:49
• 1982: Charles Durning (The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas), 7:26
• 1983: John Lithgow (Terms of Endearment), 6:28
• 1985: Robert Loggia (Jagged Edge), 9:34
• 2005: William Hurt (A History of Violence), 8:22
• 2006: Mark Wahlberg (The Departed), 9:21
• 2008: Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), 9:02
• 2012: Alan Arkin (Argo), 8:39
• 2018: Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born), 8:45 and Sam Rockwell (Vice), 9:51

Martin Balsam won for 10:18 of screen time in 1965’s A Thousand Clowns and Ben Johnson won for 9:54 in 1971’s The Last Picture Show. Jason Robards in 1977’s Julia won with 10:49. Interestingly, several of these nominees and winners were nominated alongside a co-star in their film but most stood out alone with minimal visibility but the highest impact.

With reviews for Licorice Pizza through the roof and looking like a top contender all over the place, plenty of people have won for roles like this, especially when they’re looking at their 9th or 10th career nomination without a win. In a year without a frontrunner this close to December, it’s the perfect storm for Cooper, in a truly meta role and performance, who can follow in the footsteps of megastar actors like Brad Pitt, Laura Dern and George Clooney who found love in supporting categories after a career of lead nominations and more.

Elsewhere, Jon Bernthal keeps moving up for King Richard, hoping to coattail in on a potential Will Smith win. Conversely, Timothy Spall (Spencer) dips a bit despite Kristen Stewart remaining the Best Actress frontrunner. He makes room not only for Bernthal but for previous winner J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos. A brilliantly comedic performance playing I Love Lucy co-star William Frawley, Simmons also finds dramatic balance and heft in his performance in a film that could potentially hit across the board. Jared Leto inches back up for his over the top performance in House of Gucci but it’s tough to know how this film, and his performance, will land. While it’s sure to get a nom for the mountain of makeup Leto is disguised in, it could also bring him along and he got very close last year with Golden Globe and SAG nominations for The Little Things.

The men of Don’t Look Up – Jonah Hill, Rob Morgan and Mark Rylance – all feel possible but only Hill and Rylance’s comedic performance grabbed the audience during one of the first ever screenings of the film I attended last week. The film might end up just being plays for Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep.

Here are my ranked 2022 Supporting Actor Oscar predictions for November 2021.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↔
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) ↔
4. Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑
5. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) ♦
6. Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
7. Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↑
8. Timothy Spall – Spencer (NEON) ↓
9. Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple Original Films)
10. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)  

Other contenders: Ben Affleck – The Last Duel ♦ (20th Century Studios), Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios), David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Robin de Jesus – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix), Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Cyrano (MGM), Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleecker Street), Richard Jenkins – The Humans ↓ (A24) , Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Rob Morgan – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UA), Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Alex Wolff – Pig ♦ (NEON)