2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)

A lot has happened in the last two weeks, right?

Critics’ nominations and awards have started flying in, sometimes up to five announcements a day and just this week came the Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods. While the Globes are going to be far less a component than usual they’re still a key factor in collecting the infinity stones on the way to an Oscar nomination and we’ve established a top four that might be pretty solid right now with a fifth spot left quite vulnerable.

Let’s start by looking at who’s gotten what and why it matters.

Critics spoke up first, where Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) collected wins from the National Board of Review and Washington DC critics. NYFCC threw us for a loop with its inspired win for Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth and Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) found herself with three wins from Atlanta, Boston Online and South Eastern critics. Ariana DeBose has come on strong with wins from Detroit, Las Vegas and Phoenix and all but Hunter have earned Globe and CCA nods. Ruth Negga (Passing) has New York Online and Philadelphia and then added a Globe and Spirit Awards nod to her list.

Ann Dowd picked up a Critics Choice nomination for Mass but has yet to secure an individual critics’ group mention while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) won Boston and earned a Spirit Awards nomination this week.

There’s a big sympathetic push for 90-year old Rita Moreno, who’s been an absolute firecracker in West Side Story Q&As, playing a new role in the film but given a crucial song and interactions – including with DeBose’s Anita, which won Moreno the Oscar for the 1961 version – that might be too hard for voters to pass up.

Here are my ranked 2022 Supporting Actress Oscar predictions for December 2021.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA ↔
2. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA ↔
3. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA ↑
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA ↑
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG ↓
6. Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA ↑
7. Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleecker Street) – CCA ↓
8. Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple Original Films) ↓
9. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features) ↓
10. Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) ↓

Other contenders:
Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Cate Blanchett – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Sally Hawkins – Spencer (NEON)
Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films)
Martha Plimpton – Mass (Bleecker Street)
Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix) ↓