2022 Oscar Shortlist predictions: Expect love for ‘Dune,’ ‘Don’t Look Up,’ ‘The Harder They Fall’ and more

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Christmas sure, but the Oscar Shortlists are arriving tomorrow and I’ve got predictions.

Original Score has 137 eligible compositions and Original Song ended up with 84 potential contenders this year. Several categories have seen various, if limited, precursors to go off from. The Golden Globe an Critics Choice Association nominations plus the Hollywood Music in Media Association make up the lion’s share there. In documentary, however, we have Critics Choice, Cinema Eye Honors, International Documentary Association and the Producers Guild of America from which to have an idea about which films will land there. I’ve highlighted which films have earned those nominations and wins and who has gotten both or all leading up to the announcement.

As we’re already deep into critics’ awards season, the Oscar shortlist are the first and only real insight into the minds of Academy voters we have, nearly two months before the Oscar nominations arrive. Sometimes we find the fringe contender that’s been there all along, or the one we thought was locked getting snubbed. But, we can also sometimes find a surprise inclusion and give it more attention than it needs, distracting us from the true competitors.

Shortlist voting ended on December 15, and the finalists here will move on to Phase I nomination voting, which will take place from January 27 to February 1. Oscar nominations in all 23 categories for the 94th Academy Awards will be announced on February 8, with the ceremony set to take place on March 27.

Original Score (15)

• Dune – Hans Zimmer – GG, CCA
• Cyrano – Aaron and Bryce Dessner
• A Chiara – Dan Romer and Behn Zeitlin
• Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell – CCA, HMMA winner
• Encanto – Germaine Franco – GG
• The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat – GG, HMMA
• King Richard – Kris Bowers – HMMA
• The Last Duel – Harry Gregson-Williams – HMMA
• Luca – Dan Romer
• Nightmare Alley – Nathan Johnson – CCA, HMMA
• No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer – HMMA
• Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias – GG
• The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood – GG, CCA, HMMA
• Spencer – Jonny Greenwood – CCA
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell

Watch out for: Jeymes Samuel – The Harder They Fall, The Lost Daughter – Dickon Hinchlife, Operation Mincemeat – Thomas Newman, Raya and the Last Dragon – James Newton Howard

Original Song (15)

• “Be Alive” from King Richard – GG, CCA, HMMA
• “Believe” from The Rescue
• “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
• “Call Me Cruella” from Cruella
• “Dos Orugitas” from Encanto – GG, CCA
• “Down to Joy” from Belfast – GG
• “Every Letter” from Cyrano – HMMA
• “The First Wave” from The First Wave
• “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall – CCA, HMMA
• “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect – GG, HMMA
• “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up – CCA, HMMA
• “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die – GG, CCA, HMMA winner
• “Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
• “So May We Start” from Annette
• “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

Watch out for: “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen, “Blome Swete Lilie Flour” from The Green Knight, “Home All Day” from In the Heights, “Lead the Way” from Raya and the Last Dragon, “On My Way” from The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Makeup and Hairstyling (10)

• Being the Ricardos
• Cruella – CCA
• Dune – CCA
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA
• The Green Knight
• House of Gucci – CCA
• King Richard
• Nightmare Alley – CCA
• The Suicide Squad
• Titane

Watch out for: Coming 2 America, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Sound (10)

• Belfast
• Cyrano
• Dune
• King Richard
• The Harder They Fall
• The Last Duel
• No Time to Die
• The Power of the Dog
• tick, tick…BOOM!
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

Watch out for: Eternals, The Matrix Resurrections, Nightmare Alley, A Quiet Place Part II, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Visual Effects (10)

• Dune – CCA
• Finch
• Free Guy
• Ghostbusters: Afterlife
• Godzilla vs. Kong
• The Matrix Resurrections – CCA
• Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – CCA, Annie
• Spider-Man: No Way Home
• The Suicide Squad – Annie
• The Tomorrow War – Annie

Watch out for: Black Widow, Don’t Look Up, Eternals, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Swan Song

Documentary Feature (15)

• Ascension – CCA, CEH, PGA
• Attica – CCA
• Faya Dayi – CEH, IDA
• The First Wave – PGA
• Flee – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
• Francesco
• In the Same Breath – IDA, PGA
• Julia
• Not Going Quietly – IDA
• Procession – CCA
• The Rescue – CCA, CEH, PGA
• Summer of Soul – CCA winner, CEH, IDA, PGA
• The Velvet Underground – CEH
• Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America
• Writing with Fire – IDA, PGA

Watch out for: Becoming Cousteau – CCA, Jacinta – IDA, My Name is Pauli Murray – CCA, President, The Sparks Brothers, Val

International Feature Film (15)

• Compartment No. 6 (Finland) – GG
• Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
• Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA
• The Falls (Taiwan)
• Flee (Denmark) – CCA
• Great Freedom (Austria)
• The Hand of God (Italy) – GG, CCA
• A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA
• Hive (Kosovo)
• I’m Your Man (Germany)
• Lingui, the Sacred Bonds (Chad)
• Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
• Titane (France)
• Unclenching the Fists (Russia)
• The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – CCA

Watch out for: Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn (Romania), The Good Boss (Spain), Lamb (Iceland), The Metamorphosis of Birds (Portugal), Zátopek (Czech Republic)