2023 Emmy Predictions: Variety Sketch and Talk Series changes set up an epic showdown of two titans

One thing that the Television Academy always has over the Film Academy is its willingness to change and morph its rules and designations to try and best figure the pulse of television with the Emmy Awards themselves. While they’re still stuck in the very archaic June 1 to May 31 Emmy calendar of yore, new voting structures, creating new categories, merging others and trying to either establish or demolish the distinction between a comedy and a drama, the TV Academy is almost always aiming not fall too behind the curve.

Where this comes into play this year is the big move in the Variety, Talk and Sketch Series categories, which got a major revision for the upcoming Emmys. In 2015, Outstanding Variety Series was separated into two categories – Outstanding Variety Sketch Series and Outstanding Variety Talk Series. The first two years of Outstanding Variety Sketch Series found season three of Inside Amy Schumer and season five of Key & Peele (both from Comedy Central) triumphing over the 41st and 42nd seasons of Saturday Night Live (NBC), respectively. But since then, SNL has been on a 6-year winning streak with nothing able to stop it.

While many Emmy categories now enlist a sliding scale for number of eventual nominees based on number of eligible submissions, the Variety Series category saw the number of eligible series’ drop precipitously, resulting in only three nominees in 2020 (A Black Lady Sketch Show, Drunk History and Saturday Night Live) and only two in 2021 and 2022 (ABLSS and SNL). As a quick reminder, this is how categories with fewer than 20 submissions get to their eventual nomination total.

0 – 7 submissions = submissions will be screened by the appropriate peer
group for nomination; any entry that receives nine-tenths approval will receive a
nomination
8 – 19 submissions = divide the number of submissions by 4 and round to the
nearest whole number

While we do have an increase of likely submissions this year, including the return of Documentary Now! and Inside Amy Schumer (now at Paramount+), and new shows like History of the World: Part II from 96-year old EGOT winner Mel Brooks, we’re probably looking at just four nomination slots this season.

But we haven’t even gotten to the biggest news here yet.

This year finds not the creation of a new category exactly, but the renaming of two: Outstanding Scripted Variety Series and Outstanding Talk Series. With it came some huge shakeups that will put two streak titans up against each other for the first time. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) has dominated the Outstanding Variety Talk Series with seven wins in a row, from 2016-2022. But this year it’s out of Talk Series and in Scripted Variety Series. As the show doesn’t feature regular elements of a nighttime talk show like a guest interview panel (as per new Emmy rules: unscripted interviews or panel discussions between a host/hosts and celebrities or personalities. In general, these celebrities or personalities change for each episode, the interviews or discussions usually take place in a studio (or studio-like) location, and are primarily for entertainment, as opposed to documentary, purposes), the Television Academy has decided to fully separate it from traditional talk shows like The Late Show with Stephen Colbert or Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Last Week will now have to fight SNL for dominance.

John Oliver isn’t the only one packing his bags for this new land, Ziwe and her self-titled show are too. Plus, My Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman has been submitted as Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special and The Problem with Jon Stewart is in the Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special category. While this opens the door for a new Talk Series winner, the previous dominant show here was The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and since John Oliver began there, that means a Daily Show alum has won this category for 20 years in a row (can someone get Steve Carrel a late night talk show?) it feels like we probably have a frontrunner in The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, whose titular star recently announced the end of his run with the series after eight years. Or Stephen Colbert, another Daily Show alum, for that matter, could finally win here. With Ziwe out and the end runs of shows from Samantha Bee, Lilly Singh and Chelsea Handler, the Talk Series category will once again be male-dominated with no female-led talk shows currently in the running.

Last year’s nominees in this category were: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (winner), The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Late Night with Seth Meyers and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. We can expect five nominees once again.

The nomination round of Emmy voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.

The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.

Here are my predictions for Outstanding Scripted Variety Series and Outstanding Talk Series.

Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

• A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
• Inside Amy Schumer (Paramount+)
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders: Documentary Now! (IFC), History of the World: Part II (Hulu), Ziwe (Showtime)

Outstanding Talk Series

• The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live!
• Last Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
• The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Other contenders: Hell of a Week with Charlamagne Tha God (Comedy Central), The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS), Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

Photos: Will Heath/NBC; HBO