2023 Golden Globes predictions – MOTION PICTURE: ‘The Fabelmans,’ Elvis,’ ‘Banshees’ and ‘Everything Everywhere’ vying for wins

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The Golden Globes are back and by the looks of the guest list confirmed to attend, the show must go on.

When the nominations were announced last month, there was a certain amount of anticipation to see if the changes the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (who put on the Globes) instituted, including a new board and more than doubling its membership (it’s now just over 220 journalists and more), would have a dramatic impact on what those nominees would look like. Ultimately, they didn’t look wildly different than expected, with a few big snubs and some fun inclusions. But it seems that, a year after the L.A. Times investigation that revealed the group had no Black members and had engaged in unethical conduct and suspect financial practices, all is somewhat forgiven. NBC, which owns the rights to the annual awards show, had broadcast the Globes since 1996 but declined to air the 79th edition of the awards show last year in the wake of an entertainment industry boycott sparked by the investigation.

That set off internal overhauls of rules, oversight, plus banning members from accepting gifts and introducing a hotline for reporting misconduct, splitting the the HFPA into two separate entities (one that manages the group’s philanthropy as a non-profit, one that will put on the show as a for-profit org) and more than doubling its membership by adding 103 new international journalists and 21 additional members who are U.S.-based journalists working for outlets abroad. The HFPA says they now have a voting pool that is 52 percent female and 51.5 percent racially and ethnically diverse.

Looking at the nominations and conjuring winner predictions this year, however, feels a bit more unpredictable than usual.

Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Director are the ‘top’ two categories and feel like they could go quite a few different ways. James Cameron won both for 2009’s Avatar and is back in the race with the equally mega-blockbuster sequel. Steven Spielberg films have here won three times (plus a Musical or Comedy win last year for West Side Story) and he’s won director twice. But Elvis and Baz Luhrmann are lurking here in both categories and with a Best Actor frontrunner. Can Top Gun: Maverick beat them all with just Picture and Song nominations and the stigma of three-time winner Tom Cruise returning his awards and being snubbed here? That’s just one of many obstacles the voters faced this season in their crawl back to relevancy. With the exception of 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody, winning Best Motion Picture at the Globes just doesn’t happen without a corresponding Best Director nomination (the Musical or Comedy winner that year, Green Book, had a director nomination for Peter Farrelly) so why would Top Gun? Its box office success has already been usurped by Avatar: The Way of Water. I’m going with Spielberg and The Fabelmans but Luhrmann and Elvis as the spoilers.

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The Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama race is definitely between Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Austin Butler in Elvis, a film that also earned nods in Motion Picture – Drama and Best Director. It’s a no-win scenario for the Globes here no matter who they chose; Fraser will not be attending the event after the HFPA’s lack of action on his 2003 allegation of sexual misconduct by the group’s then president Philip Berk. If Fraser wins it could look like they had no choice (although he is a top Oscar contender this season) and if they don’t it could look retaliatory, even if his not being there is scuttled under the rug with the inevitable “we accept this award on his behalf” that will follow and it will be the beginning of his Oscar coronation that we’ve been expecting all along. Even without the added controversy, Butler is still a viable, and possible winner here, on his own merit, and I think it’s very close. Ultimately, I’m going with Butler as a very Globes-y choice and in a film that’s also nominated in Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama is paved for Cate Blanchett for TÁR. She’s a three-time winner, two as Best Actress, and would join Meryl Streep, Ingrid Bergman and Jane Fonda as the most awarded actress in the Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama category if she wins here. There could be room for a Michelle Williams win on the strength of The Fabelmans but Blanchett has to be considered the frontrunner here.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy is a sure bet win for Colin Farrell in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin and he’s a previous Globe winner in this category for another McDonagh film, In Bruges. Alternately, Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy should go to Michelle Yeoh for the six-time nominated Everything Everywhere All At Once, but there’s an outside chance they could go for Margot Robbie in Babylon, a film they gave five nominations to.

The supporting categories have one that feels pretty secure and another that feels wildly open. Supporting Actor is most likely going to Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once), the overwhelming critics’ favorite. Granted, last year the critics’ favorite won here (Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog) who then lost every following award to Troy Kotsur (CODA). There’s room for a Brendan Gleeson spoiler, if a small one. Supporting Actress is interesting where the contest should be between Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), with an outside chance for Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). I’m going with Jamie Lee Curtis for a few reasons; she has no internal competition from her co-star (Stephanie Hsu) and as one of the only celebrities to stick by the HFPA last year when virtually every nominee supported the backlash and cancelation of the show (she even appeared in a video backing the org and celebrating its philanthropy). But will that, like Brendan Fraser, be an optics issue for the group? Is it ever?

Jerrod Carmichael will host the ceremony airing live coast-to-coast on Jan. 10 from 5-8 p.m. PT/8-11 p.m. ET on NBC and streaming on Peacock. Previously announced Golden Globe Award winner and six-time nominee Eddie Murphy will be the recipient of the 2023 Cecil B. deMille Award. Five-time Golden Globe Award winner and sixteen-time nominee Ryan Murphy will receive the Carol Burnett Award.

Also participating on the telecast is Sony Music Masterworks recording artist, composer, producer, and activist, Chloe Flower, who will release a new song, “Golden Hour” inspired by her upcoming appearance. Flower is an in-demand pianist for artists such as Meek Mill and Cardi B, and a fierce advocate for women of color in the music industry. Most recently, Chloe performed at this year’s Kennedy Center Honors on behalf of honoree Tania Leon.

Here are my predictions for the 80th Golden Globe Awards in the Motion Picture categories.

Best Picture – Drama

Predicted winner: The Fabelmans
Could win: Elvis

Other nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

Predicted winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Could win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Other nominees: Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

Best Director – Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Could win: Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

Other nominees: James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water, Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Predicted winner: Austin Butler – Elvis
Could win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Other nominees: Hugh Jackman – The Son; Bill Nighy – Living; Jeremy Pope – The Inspection

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Predicted winner: Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Could win: Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Other nominees: Olivia Colman – Empire of Light; Viola Davis – The Woman King; Ana de Armas – Blonde

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

Predicted winner: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Could win: Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Other nominees: Diego Calva – Babylon; Adam Driver – White Noise; Ralph Fiennes – The Menu

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

Predicted winner: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: Margot Robbie – Babylon

Other nominees: Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris; Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu; Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Other nominees: Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin; Brad Pitt – Babylon; Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Other nominees: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness; Carey Mulligan – She Said

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Could win: Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Other nominees: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once;Todd Field – TÁR; Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Best Picture – Animated

Predicted winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Other nominees: Inu-Oh, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Best Picture – Non-English Language

Predicted winner: RRR (India)
Could win: Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Other nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium)

Best Score – Motion Picture

Predicted winner: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
Could win: John Williams – The Fabelmans

Other nominees: Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin, Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking

Best Song – Motion Picture

Predicted winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Could win: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

Other nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing; “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio; “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever