2023 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (December)

With the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations revealed we have our first taste of screenplay precursors for both adapted and original (as well as where critics groups overall are going) with the Writers Guild of America (WGA) not announcing their nominations until January 25, 2023.

Adapted Screenplay feels more solid by the day at the top end, while Original Screenplay – where we’ll likely find our Best Picture winner – gets a shakeup with every spot in the top 10.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for December.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA
3. She Said (Universal Pictures) – CCA
4. The Whale (A24) – CCA
5. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑ – CCA

6. White Noise (Netflix) ↓
7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↑
8. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
9. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
10. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
The Good Nurse (Netflix)
Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
The Wonder (Netflix)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑ – CCA, GG
3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓ – CCA, GG
4. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓

6. The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
7. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑
8. Aftersun (A24) ↑ – CCA
9. The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↑
10. Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Bardo, Or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
Broker (NEON)
Close (A24)
Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
The Inspection (A24)
Nope (Universal Pictures)
Till (UAR/Orion Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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