2023 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (November)

Animation could have a banner year with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On making their way into the top 10 for Adapted Screenplay. My top 5 remains pretty solid with Glass Onion, set to premiere in theaters for a one-week exclusive beginning the day before Thanksgiving, notching up one.

Over in Original Screenplay, The Banshees of Inisherin also moves up one to the #2 spot in a very competitive field of some of the most celebrated screenplays of the year. The box office success The Menu, one of the year’s many ‘eat the rich’ stories, gains steam as well, and Aftersun grabs a new spot in the top 10.

We won’t hear from the Writers Guild until their nominations at the end of January but over the next two months between critics groups and more we’ll start to see things take shape.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for November.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑
3. She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
4. The Whale (A24)
5. White Noise (Netflix)

6. Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↑
9. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) ↑
10. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
The Wonder (Netflix) ↓

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↓
4. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. TÁR (Focus Features)

6. Bardo, Or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
7. The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
8. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
9. Aftersun (A24) ↑
10. Decision to Leave (MUBI)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Broker (NEON)
Close (A24)
Elvis (Warner Bros)
Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
The Inspection (A24)
Nope (Universal Pictures)
Till (UAR/Orion Pictures)
The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures)