2023 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (December)

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27 films have qualified for the Animated Feature Oscar, which is open to all Academy members at both the nomination and winner voting stages, which uses a preferential ballot system.

With nominations in from the Golden Globes and Critics’s Choice (along with what we can see with the wave of critics’ awards), four contenders have risen to the top, earning nominations with both awards bodies: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Turning Red. The critics have split between Pinocchio and Marcel for the most wins (8-5 as of this writing) and it will be a fight between these two.

Documentary Feature has taken on a malleable shape as 144 films qualified for Oscar consideration. There is no real frontrunner as All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love and Good Night Oppy have split the critics and each have obstacles in their way to a nomination. Whether packed with archival footage like AtBatB or FoL or the populist Critics’ Choice winner Oppy, with so many visual effects that it blurs the line between doc and something else entirely, the branch, which has historically snubbed films with these elements, could turn this category on its head once again. All should be safe for the shortlist of 15 along with recent PGA nominees All That Breathes (IDA winner), The Territory, Navalny, Descendent, and Retrograde. The Sinead O’ Connor doc Nothing Compares amade the PGA list after not showing up anywhere else, while AtBatB and Oppy missed.

92 films have qualified for the International Feature Film Oscar and even the shortlist of 15 will be an absolute fight in one of the richest years for the category in some time. The question is, will it be overly Euro-centric once again? Yet another new voting system is in place that could reduce the exciting, wild card type of nominations like Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. The shortlist could still provide some inspired choices. Voting at this stage is open to Academy members from any branch who volunteer to be on the screening committee. They score the films they watch from 6 to 10 and their top 15 vote-getters will made it to the shortlist. Like Documentary Feature, there is no clear frontrunner (thanks to India not submitting RRR, which would probably be leading here); no Drive My Car, no Parasite, no Roma. An exciting year, an exciting race and a great category that will see some big surprises.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for December.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – CCA, GG
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) ↑ – CCA, GG
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks Animation) ↑ – CCA, GG
4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar) ↓ – CCA, GG
5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures)

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6. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) – CCA
7. Inu-oh (GKIDS) ↑ – GG
8. Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal Pictures) ↓
9. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar) ↓
10. Strange World (Walt Disney) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood (Netflix) ♦
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century Studios)
Charlotte ♦
DC League of Super Pets (Warner Bros)
Drifting Home (Netflix)
Goodbye, Don Glees! ♦
Lamya’s Poem ♦
Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be ♦
Luck (Apple Original Films) ↓
Mad God
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
New Gods: Yang Jian ♦
Oink ♦
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Paramount Pictures)
Run, Tiger, Run! ♦
The Sea Beast (Netflix)

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films/CNN/Warner Bros) ↑ – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
2. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, Gotham, IDA, PGA
3. The Territory (National Geographic) – CEH, Gotham, PGA
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) ↓ – CEH, Gotham, IDA
5. Fire of Love (National Geographic/NEON) – CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
6. Descendent (Netflix) – CCA, PGA
7. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios) – CCA
8. Retrograde (National Geographic) – PGA
9. The Janes (HBO Documentary Films) – CCA
10. Aftershock (Hulu) – CCA
11. Moonage Dream (HBO Documentary Films/NEON) – CCA
12. Nothing Compares (Showtime Documentary Films) ↑ – PGA
13. Wildcat (Amazon Studios) ♦
14. Bad Axe (IFC Films) ↑
15. A House Made of Splinters (TBD) – EFA, IDA

Other contenders (alphabetical)

The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions) – CCA
Beba (NEON) ↓
Cow (IFC Films)
The Exiles (TBD)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff Entertainment) – CCA
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Pictures Classics)
I Didn’t See You There (TBD)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney Original Documentary)
Is That Black Enough For You? (Netflix)
Katrina Babies – IDA
Last Flight Home (MTV Documentary Films)
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues (Apple Original Films)
Mija (Disney Original Documentary) ↓ – IDA
A Night of Knowing Nothing – CEH
No Simple Way Home – IDA
The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile (Sony Pictures Classics)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia Pictures)
Sidney (Apple Original Films) – CCA
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Sr.” (Netflix)
Three Minutes: A Lengthening (NEON) 
What We Leave Behind – Gotham
Young Plato (Autolook Films) ↓ – BIFA, IDA

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INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Close (Belgium) – BIFA, CCA, EFA, GG
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) – BIFA, CCA, GG, Gotham
3. Saint Omer (France) – Gotham
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) – CCA, GG
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – GG
6. EO (Poland) ↑
7. Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico) ↓ – CCA
8. Corsage (Austria) ↓ – EFA, Gotham
9. Holy Spider (Denmark) ↓ – EFA
10. Alcarràs (Spain) ↓ – EFA
11. Klondike (Ukraine)
12. Joyland (Pakistan)
13. Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
14. The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
15. Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

A Ballad (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Butterfly on a Windowpane (Nepal)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
Goddamned Asura (Taiwan)
The Happiest Man in the World (North Macedonia)
Mars One (Brazil)
Narcosis (Netherlands)
Nostalgia (Italy)
A Piece of Sky (Switzerland)
Plan 75 (Japan)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) ↓
Utama (Bolivia)
Xalé (Senegal)
War Sailor (Norway) ♦
Where the Wind Blows (Hong Kong)