2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (December)

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Bill Nighy (Living) have all secured Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations for Best Actor, pushing them closer to locked status in a category that’s been largely undefinable for months outside the very early calls of Fraser as an inevitable winner.

That status changed, dramatically, once critics’ groups started announcing and Farrell began dominating the wins. With 10 wins (including a dual win with After Yang at NYFCC), Farrell became the quiet critics’ champ in a film that’s also massively over-performed this season. For Fraser, he fumbled at the start; losing the Gotham, missing a Spirit nom (like, how?) and missing the major critics wins (he’s not suddenly going to get NSFC). He’s started a slow climb with regionals, five wins so far, and while he won’t compete with Farrell at the Globes (different categories), will his history with them and choosing to not attend the show continue to negatively impact his chances? For Butler, he’s grabbing all the precursors but he hasn’t won any critics’ Best Actor prizes yet. He has, however, won four Breakthrough Performer awards (which are sometimes a way for a group to essentially give two top awards) and his film is doing very well across the board with everything from the Globes to CCA to Hollywood Critics Association.

Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) both made one of the six spots at Critics Choice but both missed the drama Globe in favor of Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) and Hugh Jackman (The Son). Babylon‘s Diego Calva also earned a GG spot in comedy/musical. On the flip side, all of them missed CCA. Each represent potential first-timers or a previous nominee in a category that, I know I’m repeating myself, has consistently had a returning winner or nominee since the 1930s. Since everyone is blanking hard on Emancipation, it doesn’t seem like anyone’s ready to welcome back Will Smith after last season’s Oscars, even if his personal reviews for the film have been good.

The Leaderboard:

• Colin Farrell – After Yang (BSFC, NYFCC)
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, DFWFCA, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, UFCA, WAFCA)
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale (LVFCS, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, StLFCA)
• Bill Nighy – Living (LAFCA)

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for December.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – CCA, GG
2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG
3. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – CCA, GG
5. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG

6. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) ↑ – CCA
7. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – CCA
8. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24) ↑ – GG
9. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓ – GG
10. Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)
11. Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – GG
12. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Studios)
13. Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑ – GG
14. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix) ↓ – GG
15. Daniel Giménez Cacho – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
16. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix) ↓
17. Park Hae-il – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑
18. Song Kang-ho – Broker (NEON) ↑
19. Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↓
20. Will Smith – Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Christian Bale – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↓
Eden Dambrine – Close (A24)
Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
Colin Farrell – After Yang (A24)
Jonathan Majors – Devotion (Sony Pictures)
Jim Parsons – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)