With Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins put off yet another year, that moves Michael Fassbender off the list and opens the door for the men of other Searchlight Pictures films, in particular Colin Farrell in Martin McDonaugh’s The Banshees on Inisherin as well as the pair of Colin Firth and Micheal Ward in Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light. Inevitably, one of the two will be pushed supporting – no studio has successfully gotten two lead actors nominated since Orion Pictures did with 1984’s Amadeus (where F. Murray Abraham bested titular co-star Tom Hulce) – and as the film is a romance between Ward and Olivia Colman, it seems likely that Firth will be campaigned in supporting.
Elvis has proven to be a box office hit, passing $100M domestically in the U.S. and becoming one of the few non-IP/prequel/sequel original film to do so in the pandemic age. Austin Butler’s move into the top 5 also happens as Rustin, starring Colman Domingo as gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin, might not be finished in time for a proper festival run and possibly even a 2022 release. Daniel Giménez Cacho (Bardo) rises on the strength of the Iñárritu film being the #1 Netflix priority this season, kicking off at Venice (official lineup announcement coming July 26) and making more festival pit stops throughout the fall.
Flipping Hugh Jackman (The Son) and Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) this month and still holding onto Song Kang-ho (Broker) for now.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for July 2022.
Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦
- Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
- Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) ↓ – 2022 or 2023?
- Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
- Song Kang-ho – Broker (NEON)
- Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023? ↓
- Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
- Daniel Giménez Cacho – Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) (Netflix) ↑
- Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
- Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix) ↓
- Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting? ↑
- Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Christian Bale – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
- Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023? ↑
- Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting? ↓
- Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) ↑
- Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – lead or supporting? ↓
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
- Park Hae-il – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
- Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Studios) ↓
Other contenders (alphabetical):
- Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
- Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
- Taron Egerton – Tetris (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
- Michael Fassbender – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- Jamie Foxx – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Jalil Hall – Till (UAR/Orion)
- Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
- Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
- Paul Mescal – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Paul Mescal – Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Viggo Mortensen – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios) ♦
- Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
- Jack O’Connell – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
- Jim Parsons – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
- Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
- Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) – lead or supporting?
- Adam Sandler – Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
- John David Washington – True Love (20th Century Studios)
- Steve Coogan – The Lost King – TBD
- Jean Dujardin – November – TBD
- Joel Edgerton – The Brutalist – TBD
- Jesse Eisenberg – Manodrome – TBD
- Jon Hamm – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
- Melvil Poupaud – Brother and Sister – TBD
- Tahar Rahim – Don Juan – TBD