2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (June)

On the precipice of the release of Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, it’s tough to say whether or not star Austin Butler can secure a nomination spot at the top of summer and hold onto it all the way through the many months of pre-awards season, fall festivals and late-breaking releases. One thing I do know is that it has to be a big box office hit. It doesn’t need to be the $900M worldwide gross of Bohemian Rhapsody big but it’s got to be bigger than the $200M of Rocketman to sustain him.

Let’s get to a little more action and a little less conversation. Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for June 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) ↑
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix)
5. Song Kang-ho – Broker (NEON)

6. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros)
7. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑
8. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix) ↓
9. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
11. Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
12. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
13. Christian Bale – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
14. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – lead or supporting?
15. Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
16. Park Hae-il – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
17. Kelvin Harrison Jr. – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
18. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Studios)
19. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) ↑
20. Daniel Giménez Cacho – Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Christian Bale – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
• Taron Egerton – Tetris (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
• Zac Efron – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Michael Fassbender – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Jamie Foxx – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Jesse Garcia – Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jalil Hall – Till (MGM/UAR)
• Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Nicholas Hoult – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Paul Mescal – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Paul Mescal – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
• Jack O’Connell – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Jim Parsons – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Dev Patel – Monkey Man (Netflix)
• Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
• Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• Sam Rockwell – See How They Run (Searchlight Pictures)
• Adam Sandler – Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• John David Washington – True Love (20^th Century Studios)

Without distribution

• Steve Coogan – The Lost King – TBD
• Jean Dujardin – November – TBD
• Joel Edgerton – The Brutalist – TBD
• Jesse Eisenberg – Manodrome – TBD
• Jon Hamm – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• Melvil Poupaud – Brother and Sister – TBD
• Tahar Rahim – Don Juan – TBD