2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (December)

Cate Blanchett (TÁR) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) took their dual frontrunner last month with Gotham and Spirit Award nominations to heart and now find themselves at the next stage of the game, with critics’ groups bestowing all and every award on the two and only the two. Golden Globe and Critics Choice nods were easy gets for both, not so for surprise Gotham winner Danielle Deadwyler, who was snubbed at the Globes for Till. Regardless of how you see the Golden Globes this year or what their impact might be, her miss here, especially in the face of a membership that’s more than doubled in size and who provides two Best Actress categories, is worrisome.

With two ‘comedic’ performances in Robbie and Yeoh, Deadwyler didn’t lose out to them. Blanchett, Viola Davis, Ana de Armas, Olivia Colman and Michelle Williams found those drama spots instead. While de Armas feels like the biggest outlier here, she also nabbed an Australian Academy Award nomination for Blonde and could poise herself as a pretty big spoiler this season. We obviously still have SAG and BAFTA to throw even more wrenches into the mix but for the moment it’s a two-person race and nothing in phase I is likely to change that. Next up will be BAFTA longlists on January 6, SAG nominations on January 11 and BAFTA nominations on January 19, just five days before Oscar nominations.

The Leaderboard:

• Cate Blanchett – TÁR (AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, DFWFCA, IFJA, LAFCA, NYFCC, PCC, PFCC, WAFCA)
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till (Gotham)
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (BSFC, LVFCS, NBR, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, UFCA)

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, GG
3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
4. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony /TriStar Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG
5. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG

6. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓ – CCA
7. Ana De Armas – Blonde (Netflix) ↑ – GG
8. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – GG
9. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
10. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony /TriStar Pictures) ↓
11. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures) ↓ – GG
12. Vicky Krieps – Corsage (IFC Films) ↑
13. Rooney Mara – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
14. Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures)
15. Taylor Russell – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↓
16. Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix ↓
17. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
18. Florence Pugh – The Wonder (Netflix) ↓
19. Zar Emir Ebrahimi – Holy Spider (Utopia)
20. Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) ↑ – GG

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Frankie Corrio – Aftersun (A24)
Emma Corrin – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
Dale Dickey – A Love Song (Bleecker Street)
Anna Diop – Nanny (Amazon Studios)
Mia Goth – Pearl (A24)
Sally Hawkins – The Lost King (IFC Films)
Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal (Roadside Attractions) ↓
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) – GG 
Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Joanna Scanlan – After Love (Vertigo Releasing)
Léa Seydoux – One Fine Morning (Sony Pictures Classics)
Letitia Wright – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

Photo credit: Scott Garfield