2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (July)

There’s a small chance that John Ridley’s Shirley for Netflix, the biopic starring Oscar winner Regina King as Shirley Chisholm, could be pushed to 2023 or at the very least won’t be finished in time to hit the fall festivals and four-time Oscar nominee Annette Bening in another Netflix-distributed biopic, Nyad (about long-distance swimmer Diana Nyad) is definitely off the 2022 calendar. On the flip side, Searchlight Pictures confirmed last week that Empire of Light, from Sam Mendes and starring Oscar winner Olivia Colman, will be in theaters this December.

Category placement and juggling will be a factor all season until studios reveal their submission and campaign plans and that impacts the likes of Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan in Maria Schrader’s She Said (Universal) and virtually every actress in Sarah Polley’s Women Talking for MGM/UAR. Could Rooney Mara (who debuts here) or Frances McDormand be pushed lead and others supporting or might it be more likely that everyone gets a supporting push?

A handful of contenders are finding their way to the early announcements of the Venice and Toronto film festivals, including Cate Blanchett in TÁR (Venice), Ana de Armas in Blonde (Venice) Viola Davis in The Woman King (TIFF) and Emma Corrin in My Policeman (TIFF). Official lineups will be revealed in the coming weeks.

The Jennifer Lawrence soldier home from Afghanistan film Red, White and Water is now titled Causeway and moves from A24 to Apple. The feature film directorial debut from Lila Neugebauer will be out this year and Vanessa Kirby debuts here for Napoleon but it’s still up in the air whether she’d be lead or supporting and if it’s coming out this year or next.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for July 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
3. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
4. Naomie Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures)
5. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑

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6. Regina King – Shirley (Netflix) ↓ – 2022 or 2023?
7. Helen Mirren – Golda (Bleecker Street)
8. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) – lead or supporting?
9. Ana De Armas – Blonde (Netflix)
10. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Columbia Pictures)
11. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion)
12. Emma Corrin – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix) ↑
13. Anamaria Vartolomei – Happening (IFC Films)
14. Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
15. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
16. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑
17. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – lead or supporting?
18. Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – lead or supporting? / 2022 or 2023? ♦
19. Rooney Mara – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) – lead or supporting? ♦
20. Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix) – lead or supporting?

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Yalitza Aparicio – Presences (VIX)
• Doona Bae – Broker (NEON)
• Melissa Barrera – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Juliette Binoche – Paradise Highway (Lionsgate)
• Gemma Chan – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
• Emma Corrin – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Charlbi Dean – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
• Kirsten Dunst – Civil War (A24) ↓ – 2022 or 2023?
• Manal Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Nathalie Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Dakota Johnson – Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
• Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures) – lead or supporting?
• Keira Knightley – Boston Strangler (Warner Bros)
• Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
• Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Margot Robbie – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Saoirse Ronan – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Taylor Russell – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Joanna Scanlan – After Love (Vertigo Releasing)
• Léa Seydoux – One Fine Morning (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)

Without distribution

• Patricia Clarkson – Fair Fight – TBD
• Marion Cotillard – Brother and Sister – TBD
• Marion Cotillard – The Brutalist – TBD
• Penélope Cruz – L’Immensita – TBD
• Virginie Efira – Revoir Paris – TBD
• Anne Hathaway – Eileen – TBD
• Sally Hawkins – The Lost King – TBD
• Talia Ryder – Joika – TBD
• Shailene Woodley – Misanthrope – TBD

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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