2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (November)

With both the Gothams and Spirit Awards announcing nominations, we’re just starting to see how some of these acting races and narratives can take early shape. Both groups have moved to non-gendered categories but the Oscars (and others) have not so for purposes of predictions, they’ll be more binary than that.

In lead actress, only two performers landed nominations at both – Cate Blanchett in TÁR and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once. The back and forth between these two stellar actresses and their performances is going to happen all season; Yeoh received a prize from the Toronto International Film and has one coming up at Santa Barbara, a prime awards season stop. Blanchett is set for honors at the Palm Springs and Santa Barbara as well. Yeoh’s film led the Spirit Awards noms with 8, Blanchett’s was just one behind with 7. TÁR led the Gotham Awards nominations with 5, EEAAO nabbed three. The two actresses couldn’t be any more different; Blanchett a two-time Oscar winner already and a seven-time nominee while Yeoh has never really been in Oscar contention, although she came close with 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (earning a BAFTA nom in lead) and 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians, which earned her a Screen Actors Guild ensemble nomination that many thought would pave the way for a supporting actress Oscar nod.

Veteran or never-won narratives aren’t quite as strong here as they can be in other categories. But, Jessica Chastain can finally win her first just as easily Frances McDormand can steamroll to her third regardless of their fellow nominees and how critics and pundits view their performances. It just depends on the season. Both TÁR and Everything Everywhere All At Once are Best Picture contenders, and for many, very high on the list. It’s becoming more closely tied than it used to be for Best Actress; since the expanded Best Picture lineup began in 2009, the winner here has come from a BP nominee eight out of 13 times.

That isn’t to say the race is only between Blanchett and Yeoh (although we seem to be heading down that road fast), it’s a very competitive season in Best Actress, one of the best in some time. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) is still in it, Margot Robbie seems to have bounced back (or stayed, for some) with great early notices from the early screenings of Babylon. Can’t even count out previous Oscar winners Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) or Viola Davis (The Woman King) or Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway). The response to the first clip of Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Houston’s indelible performance of the National Anthem at Super Bowl XXV) was met online with a lot of skepticism and even derision. Online discourse doesn’t really matter as much as some want it to; it isn’t Academy voting and to pretend it is means we haven’t learned a thing.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑
3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑
4. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
5. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony /TriStar Pictures)

6. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑
7. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony /TriStar Pictures)
8. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
9. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple Original Films) ↑
10. Rooney Mara – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↑
11. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)
12. Taylor Russell – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↑
13. Ana De Armas – Blonde (Netflix) ↓
14. Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
15. Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
16. Florence Pugh – The Wonder (Netflix) ↓
17. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
18. Vicky Krieps – Corsage (IFC Films) ♦
19. Zar Emir Ebrahimi – Holy Spider (Utopia)
20. Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal (Roadside Attractions) ♦

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Frankie Corrio – Aftersun (A24) ♦
Emma Corrin – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
Dale Dickey – A Love Song (Bleecker Street) ♦
Anna Diop – Nanny (Amazon Studios) ♦
Mia Goth – Pearl (A24) ↓
Sally Hawkins – The Lost King (IFC Films)
Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Joanna Scanlan – After Love (Vertigo Releasing)
Léa Seydoux – One Fine Morning (Sony Pictures Classics)
Letitia Wright – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)