2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (December)

A funny thing happened on the way to the Oscar shortlists…

Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany’s International Feature Film Oscar entry from Netflix, blasted its way through with five mentions, in all shortlist categories it was eligible for: IFF, Score, Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Had there been an original song at the end, it probably would have nabbed that too.

What that could boil down to something we’ve been able to now rely on rather consistently and that’s the ‘non-English language Best Director nominee’ and these shortlist results could be pointing to Edward Berger. Earlier in the season it looked like it could be four-time Oscar winner Alejandro G. Iñàrritu for Bardo or maybe Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave. Ruben Östlund won his second Cannes Palme d’Or and second European Film Award for Best Picture this year and although Triangle of Sadness is an English-language film, it is his first and would be an adjacent pick. Östlund’s success at the EFAs (he also won Director and Screenwriter) is key not only for the history those awards have in pointing us in right direction but that Berger and All Quiet didn’t show up there at all, whereas other IFF shortlist contenders did. It’s all a part of why this is an imperfect science and why sometimes certain precursors matter and sometimes they don’t. Timing can be an equally or sometimes a much more important factor. Then there’s S. S. Rajamouli with RRR. After becoming a huge hit over the summer on Netflix and then India not choosing it as their Oscar entry (ironically, they ended up making the shortlist anyway, for the first time in 21 years), critics kicked into high gear, with several groups nominating the film for Best Picture and the NYFCC giving Rajamouli their Best Director win. Critics Choice and the HCA followed suit and he’s among their Best Director nominees, albeit both in categories of 10 spots, and the film is nominated for Best Picture at both. The Globes went more traditional, opting not to nominate him or the film in a main motion picture category, Östlund or Berger, although Triangle showed up in the Best Picture – Musical/Comedy category and both RRR and All Quiet in Best Picture – Non-English Language. A conundrum!

But you know what’s been really wild how Best Picture and Best Director, so inextricably linked in the past, have really drifted apart since the Best Picture expansion and preferential voting began in 2009. Three films have won Best Picture, in fields of 8-10, without their director even being nominated (2012’s Argo, 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA). While you can point to reasons for why they missed, logical or not, it’s an unusual circumstance to happen so many times in just a 12-year span.

The Leaderboard:

• Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (NYFCO)
• Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (FFCC)
• The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once (AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, LVFCS, NFCS, NYFCO, NTFCA, OAFFC, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SEFCA, UFCA, WAFCA)
• Todd Field – TÁR (BSFC, IFJA, LAFCA)
• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (NBR)
• S. S. Rajamouli – RRR (NYFCC)
• Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King (BFCC)
• Sarah Polley – Women Talking (StLFCA)

What to make of women directors this year? It’s definitely clear that we aren’t going to have a third woman in a row win after Chloé Zhao and Jane Campion made Oscar history but as this year has so many previous male winners as top contenders (like Spielberg and Cameron) and the impending chances of the helmers listed above, it’s beginning to look like women in general might be shoved out entirely. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) earned CCA and HCA nods in a field of 10 alongside Golden Globe nominees Spielberg, Cameron, Baz Luhrmann, Martin McDonagh and The Daniels. What’s interesting about that list is that both Luhrmann and McDonagh made it all the way through the season with Globe, BAFTA and DGA nominations for previous films (Moulin Rouge! and Three Billboards, respectively) only to get snubbed at the Oscars.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for December.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑ – CCA, GG
2. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓ – CCA, GG
3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
4. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓ – CCA

6. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↑ – CCA, GG
7. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↓ – CCA
8. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑
9. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
10. S.S. Rajamouli – RRR (Variance Films) ↑ – CCA
11. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓ – CCA
12. Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↑ – CCA
13. Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
14. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) ↓
15. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
16. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
17. Guillermo del Toro and Mark Gustafson – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↓
18. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
19. Chinonye Chukwu – Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
20. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Hirokazu Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
Lisa Neugebauer – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)